Statecraft & Security

Politics & Music in Pakistan

2012-01-08T17:53:00.000-08:00

Several years after "Yeh Hum Naheen," a bold attempt by Pakistani musicians to oppose terrorism (see below), the country's musical community seems to be losing hope, the AFP reports.

New Definitions for Information Operations

2011-12-02T11:05:00.000-08:00

Ever since I began studying information operations (IO) five years ago, I have been frustrated with the definitions. Too many are bureaucratic non-definitions, often circular in nature. "The Office of Special Studies conducts studies that are special." What is 'special'? "Special refers to studies, particularly those carried out by the Office of Special Studies." You get the idea.

Perhaps most frustrating is the fact that the five "core capabilities" of Information Operations overlap terribly. Nor are they all really capabilities. Electronic warfare (EW) pertains to the physical waves of radios, radar, etc; it is a medium (or, to be more specific, operations in a given medium). Likewise, computer network operations (CNO) pertains to a medium. But military deception (MILDEC) and operational security (OPSEC) are both activities , which can be carried out in a varied of media. Psychological operations (PSYOP) are defined as operations by the military to convey information to a foreign audience to influence it. Again, that is an activity, and arguably one that encompasses MILDEC. Thus, if one hacks into an enemy computer to plant bogus information which will deceive him, one is engaging in CNO, MILDEC and PSYOP all at once.

It may be time to return to the drawing board. What, at the most fundamental level, is IO? Let me propose that its primary realm is the mind of the enemy. This makes it distinct from intelligence which, most fundamentally, pertains to our own mind and what we know (and adding to that body of knowledge).

There are really only two things we can do to the enemy's mind: we can convey information to it, or we can withhold information from it. We may be trying to make him feel fearful, over-confident or ignorant; we may be trying to make him attack the wrong location or hold back from attacking all together. But IO contains only two fundamental activities for accomplishing all those missions and more: we can convey information or withhold it.

Withholding information is conceptually simpler, so we will deal with it first. There are two basic means of withholding information: (1) preventing the enemy's eyes and ears from collecting it and (2) preventing its effective communication to headquarters.

Preventing collection can be either passive or active. Passive collection prevention means employing security, that is, metaphorically (or sometimes literally) building fences. Security includes computer firewalls (part of computer network defense, or CND), background checks, ID cards and a host of other measures designed to prevent the enemy from getting close to information he might like to obtain. Active collection prevention involves targeting enemy attempts to collect information. This can include physical destruction of enemy satellites or reconnaissance craft, but it can also include the capture or turning of enemy agents, which is the realm of counterintelligence (CI). CI often makes use of knowledge about the enemy - intelligence - to improve its collection prevention capabilities; if you know the enemy spy is coming, it is much easier to arrest him.

Preventing enemy communication can take a variety of forms: physical destruction of communications infrastructure, jamming of enemy signals (EW), or destroying enemy computer networks with viruses (a form of computer network attack - CNA).

While there are many forms of withholding information, this activity is relatively straight-forward. More complex is conveying information to the enemy. One of the reasons for this is that while the enemy's ignorance is almost always an obvious good for us, his possession of information - be it true or false - requires a more complex plan. Moreover, IO can also target third parties that are not necessarily enemies, including neutral nations or populations under enemy governments.

There are two ways of dividing means by which information is conveyed to the enemy. The first schema for thinking about this involves the true/false/partly true division. (This should not be confused with white, black and grey propaganda, terms which refer to the stated source of propaganda, rather than its contents.) Any body involved in conveying information may convey truthful messages; on the other hand, certain organizations - such as the Peace Corps and Voice of America - do not knowingly convey falsehood, since doing so would undermine their basic mission. While outright deception certainly has its utility, half-truths are often more useful, and must always be used to support deception.

The other method of dividing means of information conveyance is by medium. To some extent these media correspond to the IO "core capabilities". Electromagnetic waves are clearly the realm of EW, while the bits and bytes of computer information belong to CNO. Physical observation of troop movements may be prevented by OPSEC, or exploited by MILDEC. Words and images (carried via leaflets or broadcasts) may be conveyed by PSYOP as well as non-IO entities. Although such functions as White House press conferences are not primarily concerned with IO, they should be planned in coordination with a larger IO strategy to ensure consistency.

At the very top of this hierarchy of definitions lies a question about which we have said relatively little: What do we want the enemy to do? That is why IO tries to get inside the enemy's head in the first place. The answer to that question will vary from one situation to the next, but it is the essential question. Closely related to it is a second: What do we want the enemy to think? The answer to the first question may be that we want the enemy to attack a position which he cannot take, suffering major losses in the process. If that is what we want him to do, we will try to accomplish that end by making him think that our position is weaker than it is. Around this we build an IO strategy, both denying and conveying information. We capture his spies and jam his radar so he cannot see the true strength of our position. We also release some true information about the presence of certain commanders elsewhere, suggesting that the units they command are not located at the position in question. Moreover, we also convey false information, suggesting that our forces are thin, perhaps because we believe the enemy will attack elsewhere.

These various categories and definitions are not perfect. Counterintelligence, for example, can gain useful information from turned enemy agents, and thus belongs to the field of intelligence as well as IO. Furthermore, CI can be used both to deny the enemy information as well as to convey information to him.

In spite of this and other shortcomings, I think this schema has much to offer. It provides a logical hierarchy of functions which allow for clear understanding of inter-locking roles. A tactical PSYOP unit may drop leaflets or conduct shows of military force, but both are methods of conveying information to the enemy, and both require some understanding of how the enemy processes information in order to craft effective messages. An emphasis on what IO does and how it does it, rather than how the Pentagon divides it into boxes, may allow for more flexible operations in the field and better outcomes for our IO commanders.

Pictured is an EC-130 Commondo Solo aircraft of the 193rd Special Operations Wing, used for propaganda broadcasts. Picture via FlightSchoolList.com.

CAPTURED!

2011-05-26T07:15:00.000-07:00

US-Indian Relations in the Post-bin Laden World

2011-05-04T08:37:00.000-07:00

This morning's FT reports that Osama bin Laden's neighbors in Abbottabad knew his house contained highly conservative residents, among them both Afghan refugees and Arabic-speakers. Moreover, locals knew that the house's residents bought food in large quantities at a time, had a taste for foreign beverages, burned all their trash and refused to allow their servants to hold second jobs with other employers. How did this not raise red flags? One neighbor, Jehangir Khan, reports that security in the area is heavy: “People are frequently asked to produce their national identity cards.” The case that Pakistan's intelligence is incompetent or complicit grows ever stronger.

Meanwhile, the discovery of Osama bin Laden deep in Pakistan, far from the Afghan border, is likely not only to sour US-Pakistani relations, but also - by extension - to strengthen US-Indian relations. Relations between the world's two largest democracies, though sometimes rocky (as in the case of India's recent rejection of US fighter planes), have general been positive in themselves; complications have primarily arisen from US support to Pakistan. If (or when) that support tapers off, US relations with India will likely continue to improve.

So where might we expect, or hope, for future US-Indian cooperation? Four areas come to mind:

Anti-piracy operations. We have already seen the Indian Navy take strong actions against Somali pirates. Likewise, the Indian Navy is already active in the Strait of Malacca. The US takes keen interest in the freedom of the seas, particularly in these two regions. Look for growing collaboration between US and Indian forces here.

Burma. The US has long tried to isolate the Burmese military junta, but a shift in US strategy and signs of possible change in the regime mean we can expect greater engagement in the future. India, by virtue of its border with Burma, has historically taken a more pragmatic approach to the Burmese junta. As American and Indian views converge, expect greater diplomatic and development cooperation.

Terrorism. India's single greatest terrorist enemy is Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), whose primary aim is to drive India out of Kashmir. While the US is more interested in al-Qaeda, particularly Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), LeT is connected to the international network of Islamic terrorists, and thus the US and India have a common interest in fighting these forces. That Pakistan's ISI has often been a link in this chain complicates US-Indian cooperation, but if American ties to Pakistan decline, the door is opened for greater counterterrorism coordination.

Africa. India has strong ties to Africa, particularly with such important nations as Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa. Given its historic participation in the Non-Aligned Movement, India enjoys a degree of trust on the African continent which is rarely afforded to the United States. India will be careful to safeguard that status, but the US would do well to support Indian efforts, as a means of aiding African development and as a counterweight to Chinese penetration of Africa. The US presence in UN peacekeeping operations is currently all but non-existent. With the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, however, expect US involvement in peacekeeping to rise somewhat in the coming years. Much of this will be in Africa, where India already participates in peacekeeping missions in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and Côte d'Ivoire.

Leave Out the "China"

2010-09-30T19:07:00.000-07:00

Those who have been following the news, not only in the last few weeks but for the last few years, know that Beijing has been doing a considerable amount of saber rattling at sea. In fact, China claims the entire South China Sea as sovereign territory. Well, I say we launch a simple campaign to resist Chinese encroachment on the international waters off her coast. Instead of calling them the "East China Sea" and the "South China Sea", why not simply the "East Sea" and "South Sea"? They don't belong to China, so why should we pretend they do? (Admittedly, there will be some confusion with the southern half of the Pacific Ocean, once known as the South Sea or Seas. But that's a bit of an archaic usage, so I think we can manage.)

Turkey's New Role in the World

2010-07-21T08:30:00.000-07:00

An excellent article in today's FT raises a question which has been on the minds of many analysts of international affairs: Turkey's evolving role on the global stage.

The basic conundrum is this: is Turkey's growing confidence and departure from the American playbook a good thing or a bad thing? I submit that, by and large, it is a good thing.

I am indebted to George Kennan for pointing out that the US does not need to conquer the world; we simply need to prevent the bad guys from doing so. Thus, he argued that multiple centers of power were perfectly acceptable, so long as no more than one was Soviet. Indeed, encouraging other centers of power could be a good thing, diluting the Soviet share of the total.

Today the Soviets are no longer with us, thankfully, but threats remain from China, Russia and Islamist terrorism. Turkey can serve as a rival to all three. Thus, while I would like to see Turkey maintain good relations with the US, Greece and Israel, I welcome Turkish involvement in the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucus region and Central Asia as well. There will be times Turkey departs from stated American policies; there will be times we step on each other's toes. But we should weigh these costs against the benefits that Turkey brings. How else, for example, could we end up with a secretary general of the Organization of the Islamic Conference coming from a NATO member?

Afghanistan: 1946

2010-02-06T14:31:00.000-08:00

If you'd like to take a trip down memory lane, check out this pamphlet put out by the State Department in 1946. Much has changed, of course, but much has not, like the comment from the first page that "transportation to and from this landlocked country has always been slow and difficult."

The Security-Development Nexus

2010-02-04T06:11:00.000-08:00

The new issue of Security Dialogue, a journal which "seeks to combine contemporary theoretical analysis with challenges to public policy across a wide ranging field of security studies" is now available online:

Special Issue on the Security-Development Nexus Revisited:
1 February 2010; Vol. 41, No. 1

Mapping the Security—Development Nexus: Conflict, Complexity, Cacophony, Convergence?
Maria Stern and Joakim Öjendal

Development and Security: Origins and Future
Björn Hettne

The Liberal Way of Development and the Development—Security Impasse: Exploring the Global Life-Chance Divide
Mark Duffield

The Security and Development Nexus in Cape Town: War on Gangs, Counterinsurgency and Citizenship
Steffen Jensen

The Bullet in the Living Room: Linking Security and Development in a Colombo Neighbourhood
Camilla Orjuela

Strategic Communication & Smarter Interrogation

2009-09-27T11:17:00.003-07:00

I recently came across two interesting bits of national security information on the internet. The first was this interesting website on strategic communication. “Now what,” you rightly ask, “is that?” Well, one of the many useful things the website provides is definitions. In the case of this particular term, it refers to:

“The synchronized coordination of statecraft, public affairs, public diplomacy, military information operations, and other activities... to advance US foreign policy objectives.”

In other words, strategic communication involves making sure that your messages to foreign governments and populations are clear and consistent. All too often, American administrations from either party will forget about key components of strategic communication, or the whole thing. Messages from different governmental entities are frequently contradictory. Often they focus on traditional state-to-state diplomacy, to the neglect of public diplomacy. And they usually ignore the propaganda value of our deeds.

The Strategic Communication website is still a work in progress, and looks raggedy in sections, but there are a lot of good resources already, and I expect more to come.

The second thing I came across was this book, How to Break a Terrorist: The US Interrogators Who Used Brains, Not Brutality, to Take Down the Deadliest Man in Iraq by Matthew Alexander. I have not read it yet, but I am intrigued by the title and the reviews I have seen. Cruel and inhuman practices have caused many people to turn up their noses at the term "interrogation" - and rightfully so. But Alexander reminds us that torture is not the only means of obtaining information from captives. Indeed, smarter techniques not only avoid brutalizing the subject, but are also more likely to produce quality information. That is a lesson often lost in the polemics about interrogation.

On the Failure of Population Schemes

2009-07-25T05:05:00.000-07:00

This blog usually discusses matters of security, but statecraft has other aspects as well. An article which caught my attention this morning underlined that point: "Shanghai calls on chosen couples to exceed China's one child limit".

The gist of the article is quite simple: China has too many old people and not enough young people, which will make taking care of the elderly a nightmare. "Shanghai is taking the dramatic step of actively encouraging residents to exceed China's famed 'one child' limit, citing concerns about the aging of its population and a potentially shrinking workforce," the Financial Times writes.

The only thing that prevents me from saying, "I told you so," is the fact that I wasn't around when the "one child" policy was first put in place in 1979. The problems that China is now or soon will be facing are the obvious consequences of their actions. "Shanghai's initiative follows campaigns to encourage more child bearing in other crowded Asian cities such as Hong Kong and Singapore, which had previously worked to promote small families only to see birth rates trail off..." Well, yes, contraception and abortion campaigns tend to have that effect.

In addition to creating a demographic and economic disaster, "China's decades-old one-child policy... remains a significant intrusion into private life." An added bonus.

What particularly tickles me about this story is that plenty of people pointed out the fact that these kinds of policies will backfire. In 1968 Pope Paul VI issued his highly controversial encyclical Humanae vitae, which articulated the argument that contraception runs contrary to the natural order. If that sounds a bit too philosophic for a statesman to worry about, let me point out that the true statesman must understand the order of nature before he can operate effectively within it. It is a basic test the Chinese leadership have failed.

Remembering the July 20 Plot - Again

2009-07-20T06:30:00.000-07:00

Two years ago I wrote a post about the July 20 plot. This year, commemorating those who attempted to overthrow Hitler in 1944 is even more important to me.

This past semester, as part of my duties as a teaching assistant at Texas A&M, I led discussions on John Weiss' The Ideology of Death: Why the Holocaust Happened in Germany. Weiss' argument is easily caricatured: conservatives, traditionalists, big business and Christianity (in particular Catholicism) were responsible for the Holocaust. Only progressive, atheistic (or at least irreligious and relativistic) socialists are free of blame in Weiss' account.

The problems with The Ideology of Death are legion, too many to mention here. I shall concern myself with only one: Weiss all but ignores Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg (pictured left) and the July 20 conspirators. Why? Because Stauffenberg represents everything Weiss abhors: a Catholic, an aristocrat, a nationalist and a military officer.

Weiss dismisses the July 20 plotters as johnny-come-latelys. The socialists, he says, had been opposing Hitler from day one, whereas the army only turned against Hitler when it was apparent that defeat was in store. Besides the fact that authors such as Allen Dulles have shown that the army had grave misgivings about Hitler and his band of unprofessional thugs even before the war began, Weiss overlooks a key point: the socialists never came close to toppling Hitler. The July 20 conspirators did.

As if to add insult to injury, Weiss claims that Stauffenberg has been shunned by a nation of proto-fascist Nazi sympathizers in the modern Federal Republic of Germany. His case is weak, at best. Stauffenberg's son Berthold became a general in the post-war German army; another son, Franz-Ludwig, became an elected member of both the German and European parliaments. The members of Germany's elite Wachbataillon take their oath of service on July 20, at the Bendlerblock, where the July 20 conspirators met and were later executed. The street on which it sits has been renamed Stauffenbergstraße and the building now houses the Memorial to the German Resistance.

The modern German army, created in 1955, is keen to sever any connections with its Nazi predecessors. Thus, in addition to post-1955 innovations, there are only two legitimate sources of tradition in the Germany army. One source is the military reformers of the 19th century, men like Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, and Clausewitz. The other source are the lives and heroic deaths of the July 20 conspirators.

Stauffenberg and his coconspirators were not the only people within Germany to oppose Hitler; brave men and women such as Dietrich Bonhoeffer and the White Rose movement did likewise. We would do well to reflect on their sacrifices and defend their legacy against the likes of John Weiss.

This post first appeared on The Guild Review, a blog of art, culture, faith and politics.

Difficult Choices in an Era of Deficits: The British Military Budget

2009-07-15T06:19:00.000-07:00

My beloved Financial Times carries four pieces on its daily Comment page. Always. In all the years I have subscribed I do not recall ever seeing it otherwise.

So when I saw this morning that there were only three, with Max Hastings' column"What Britain Must Give Up for the Soldiers It Needs," taking up almost double the usual space, I sat up and took notice. The piece is indeed sobering.

I have argued before in favor of retaining conventional military power, including air power. However, Hastings makes a compelling case that Britain's current attempts to maintain military power in all sectors - including a nuclear deterrent and first-rate air intercepting capabilities - come at the cost of failure and death in places like Helmand. In an era of staggering government deficits, expensive projects mean fewer boots on the ground. Rather than simply recapping Hastings' entire article, let me simply suggest that you read it.

While Britain's needs are somewhat different than America's, and her budgets considerably smaller, the basic issues at stake are the same for all the Atlanticist powers. (I have not heard much about the French military budget lately, but I suspect similar debates are at hand, or soon will be.) Thus, Americans would do well to take note of the cousins' concerns.

There are two footnotes I would add to Hastings' comments : While the details of current projects mean that reconfiguring carriers from a fighter complement designed for interception to a helicopter complement designed for ground support may be expensive, it seems to me there are possibilities here for dual-use platforms which may help bridge some of the gap between traditional peer competition and small wars capabilities.

My second comment is related. Hastings makes a strong case that the Trident capability, however desirable in its own right, is expensive and less necessary than other programs. Likewise the F-35. But carriers are another matter. They are useful for power projection around the globe, a veritable sine qua non of international engagement of the kind Britain would like to maintain. And whereas Trident missiles are only good for intimidating second-tier state powers, carriers are versatile - or at least can be - and thus capable of supporting both traditional and asymmetric uses of military power.

The Irrelevance of Political Science

2009-05-16T14:30:00.000-07:00

In a piece he wrote back in April, FT columnist Gideon Rachman wrote that "it is no longer fashionable to pick political scientists for the top positions making US foreign policy." The reason why is clear enough: "I looked at something called the Journal of Conflict Resolution and found articles about real-world political problems which seemed just to be a mass of quadratic equations. It is hard to believe that anybody actually trying to resolve a conflict would find this kind of stuff useful, or relevant." Joe Nye and Stephen Walt, both of whom teach at Harvard, have made similar observations.

As a result of the growing irrelevance of political science, it has become fashionable to recruit talent from Washington's think-tanks, institutions which are much more policy-oriented than the American academy. But this, Rachman points out, has in turn created another problem: "The transition must be extraordinary for these former analysts and scribblers. Many of them have never managed anything more than a research assistant. And suddenly, they are placed in the White House or the Pentagon and given real-world responsibilities and real soldiers to play with. It’s all a long way from the seminar room."

But a little school in the Federal City seeks to address some of these issues. The Institute of World Politics was founded in 1990 by a former member of the National Security Council Staff who noticed the very same problem Rachman points out: in spite of studying and teaching at the finest schools in the national security field, John Lenczowski discovered that these institutions had not prepared him for the actual work of national security. So he founded his own school, dedicated to the apprehension of intellectual tools which have a practical value for foreign policy practitioners. For faculty he has recruited a variety of men and women who are not only published scholars in their respective fields, but have also served in foreign policy and can bring real-life experience to bear on their teaching. Finally, recognizing that international affairs is not an amoral business, IWP insists that its students study the ideals and values of the American Founding and the Western moral tradition.

IWP has not yet achieved a perfect synthesis of study and practice, ideal and realpolitik. But it is definitely doing some interesting work and making a serious effort to train a rising generation of foreign policy practitioners in, well, the practice of foreign policy.

Anti-Western League Holds Maneuvers

2009-04-19T16:34:00.000-07:00

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an organization for military cooperation which includes Russia, China and all the former Soviet republics in Central Asia except Turkmenistan, are currently holding military exercises in Tajikistan, the BBC reports. The exercises are being billed as an "anti-terrorism" drill, but given that pro-democratic or otherwise anti-establishment movements in these countries are often labeled "terrorists" the claim is dubious. Moreover, the exercise will include not only personnel and vehicles, but also fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft. And it is taking place in a country that borders Afghanistan, where NATO is current waging a war against the Taliban. In spite of recent diplomatic niceties, the message is clear: America, go home. This is someone else's back yard.

Observers from India, Pakistan and Iran - all of which have official observer status with the organization - were present. Mongolia, a staunch supporter of the US, also has official observer status, but for reasons that are not given, there are no Mongolian observers present.

"One of the exercises involves Russian and Tajik special forces countering a simulated terrorist attack from Afghanistan." Another exercise involved para-drops. This is no small-scale war game. Nevertheless, do you think Dmitry Medvedev is going to suddenly decide to drop his complaint about NATO exercises in Georgia? Of course not.

The photo is from Peace Mission 2007, the previous SCO war game. According to official Chinese sources, "air forces and precision-guided weapons" were used at this "anti-terrorism military drill." Mmm hmm...

An Ancient Approach to Political Warfare - Part II

2008-11-15T08:14:00.000-08:00

Continued from Part I.

Aristotle, in his Rhetoric, contends that “since the objective of rhetoric is judgment… we must have regard not only to the speech’s being demonstrative and persuasive, but also to… bringing the giver of judgment [i.e. the audience] into a certain condition” (2.1). This requires an understanding of the audience and the sorts of things to which they are attentive; thus, Aristotle spends all of Section 7 discussing the possible characters of men who may hear a speech. The rhetors of the Old Testament understood that their audience valued history and historical continuity; thus, they made a point of framing their message in these terms, often invoking the prophecies of old.

This approach to appropriating tradition for propagandistic purposes was not unique to the Greeks or Hebrews, but can be found all over the ancient world. Philip M. Taylor contends that “Rome lacked the rich mythological sources available to Greek propagandists, so it created a mythology of its own” (35) This is, in fact, a sloppy simplification of a far more interesting process: Virgil’s Aeneid did not so much create a mythology as weave together several pre-existing stories of Rome’s founding – one by Aeneas and the Trojan survivors, another by the twins Romulus and Remus – in a way that supported the imperial government. Put another way, he appropriated a tradition, drawing upon its elements and then going beyond it to cover new ground.

Kautilya, an ancient Indian thinker, was a contemporary of Aristotle’s, though 3,000 miles away. He too understood the importance of appropriating tradition and discussed it in his Arthashastra, a handbook of statecraft. He explains that a king who has recently conquered new territory should “adopt the way of life, dress, language and customs of the people, show the same devotion to the gods of the territory [as to his own gods] and participate in the people’s festivals” (13.5.8; Rangarajan’s 741). Note that Kautilya is not interested in any particular quality of local customs, except that they are local and most likely beloved by the people. Though it is highly unlikely that Kautilya ever heard of Aristotle or his work, both demonstrated the same finesse for understanding an audience and the things that will favorably dispose it.

Modern-day practitioners of propaganda and political warfare would do well to learn from the ancients this lesson of appropriation. Americans, in particular, living in a relatively young nation that is more oriented toward the future than the past, tend to undertake their efforts without first asking themselves if there is already a pre-existing tradition whose terms and concepts they might adopt in order to lend their arguments new credibility. This, of course, requires the effort of first learning about foreign traditions and schools of thought, but the price is well worth it.

One of the uncomfortable qualities of Mason’s work is that it raises a difficult problem: what are we to make of an Old Testament that often bears a striking resemblance to propaganda, but which is claimed to in fact be the Word of God? An understanding of the appropriation of tradition helps us resolve some of this dilemma. A God Who acts in human history, Who stoops to make Himself known to mankind, can be expected to reveal Himself in a way that is conducive to the human mind. This is not so much God acting like a man, as it is God speaking to men; the Divine Rhetor understands His audience quite well and tailors His message accordingly. The point may be illustrated in regards to the earlier example of the lands promised to Abraham. God, in drawing a spiritual parallel between Abraham and Solomon, also draws a geographic one, not because the geography is or is not historically correct, but because the human mind appreciates and naturally grasps this sort of physical parallelism. Aristotle and Kautilya would understand the technique; there is no reason we should not.

This post first appeared on The Guild Review earlier this month.

An Ancient Approach to Political Warfare - Part I

2008-11-14T16:42:00.000-08:00

In his work Propaganda and Subversion in the Old Testament, Rex Mason makes regular reference to ‘prophecies after the event,’ (vaticinia ex eventu). Mason’s reading of these accounts is rather straightforward: such prophecies were written after the events they predicted and function as legitimizing propaganda, either for a status quo power or for forces of change.* While this may be the case with some prophecies, particularly those whose level of detail cannot otherwise be explained (at least by human factors), there are a variety of other prophetic occasions which allow for a far more nuanced understanding of political warfare as waged in the Old Testament. The appropriation of a pre-existing tradition, rather than the creation of one out of whole cloth, not only provides valuable insights for modern-day political warfare practitioners, but also begins to resolve some of the tension between the human and divine elements of the Old Testament narrative.

In Genesis 15, Abraham is promised the “land from the river of Egypt as far as the great river Euphrates,” including the land of the “Kenites, Kenizzites, Kadmonites, Hittites, Perizzites, Rephaim, Amorites and Canaanites.” Mason points out that “these are the very borders ascribed to Solomon’s rule at the height of his fortunes: ‘Solomon exercised rule over all the kingdoms from the River [i.e. the Euphrates], to the land of the Philistines, that is, as far as the border of Egypt’” (33-4; internal quotation from 1 Kings 4:21). Mason comments that “the parallel between the ideal boundary claimed in royal propaganda for Solomon and the extent of land promised to Abraham in the ‘prophecy’ cannot be coincidental,” and concludes that “the stories of Abraham have an element of royal ideology in them” (34). However, an alternative reading of this parallelism is plausible.

It is quite possible that the story of the land promised to Abraham predated the Davidic monarchy; even if some editing has occurred between the Davidic-era version and the one that has come down to us, the essential details – including the borders of the lands promised to Abraham – may have already been set down. In such a case, Solomon would not have created the account of earlier events to match his kingdom, but shaped the perception of his kingdom to imply continuity with the past. Without realizing, Mason himself seems to have considered this possibility when he notes that the boundaries claimed by Solomon were “very largely fancy, for Solomon’s ‘empire’ (if such it may be called) certainly did not extend as far nor did he receive tribute from as many nations,” as named in the Abrahamic prophecy (34).**

A host of similar cases can be found in Mason’s work. He contends, for example, that the accounts of the Israelite tabernacle are “clearly influenced by the later Jerusalem temple,” in an attempt by priestly editors to write the central role of the temple into earlier history (57). While this interpretation is possible, Mason’s chronological gymnastics are hardly necessary to understand the parallelism between the tabernacle and the temple. Just as likely, priestly or royal personnel involved in the construction of the temple reached into Israelite history and consciously drew upon the example of the tabernacle, in order to imply continuity with the past, even if the temple in fact marked a shift in Israelite spirituality, as Mason argues.

Coming soon: Part II.

* I employ the term ‘propaganda’ throughout in the same way Mason does, to indicate ‘the presentation of material so as to express a particular belief or set of beliefs in such a way as to command assent to it from those to whom it is addressed’ (170). Thus, ‘propaganda’ is a neutral term referring to a method, not to the truth or falsehood, justice or injustice of the cause being promoted.

** To be fair, Mason does not explicitly advocate the position that these prophecies were completely fabricated after the fact; rather, he leaves the issue of their original material largely untouched, and appears not to have thought about this question in a systematic way. Thus, we find him at one point claiming that “the priests were creating a social order” (63) and then turning around and writing that the priests “skillfully preserved continuity with what had gone before” (64, emphasis added).

This post first appeared on The Guild Review earlier this month.

Clear Political Messages - For Once

2008-10-21T08:55:00.001-07:00

America frequently has a problem getting its message out. We do a better job with domestic audiences than foreign ones, but even domestic messaging can be confused and ineffective. As a conservative, it has been painful for me to watch the McCain campaign's halting attempts to clearly articulate themes that resonate with the American people and with the Republican party's values. But one group, NeverFindOut.org, has managed to put together a series of ads that are clear, simple, and to the point, with a young and professional look. Whether you support John McCain or not, I encourage you to take a look; anyone interested in political rhetoric could take a page from their book.

"Part of the Problem"

"Middle Class"

Russia Launches Cyber War To Match Conventional Offensive

2008-08-08T13:54:00.000-07:00

While Russian regular forces are engaging Georgian troops inside of Georgian territory, Russian cyberwarriors are busy doing their part to fight the tiny republic. As of this posting the Georgian president's website and the Georgian government homepage were down. Coincidence? Perhaps. But the proof comes when you visit the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, where visitors are met by this montage comparing Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to Adolph Hitler.

I'll give the Russians this: they're good at what they do...

(I've included above the links to all three websites so you can monitor developments in real time. I'd not be surprised to see Russian hackers add new content in the coming hours and days.)

Air Surperiority: Yesterday's Problem, or Tomorrow's?

2008-07-18T10:27:00.000-07:00

John Gapper of the Financial Times has written an excellent piece on the F-22, the question of air superiority and the economics of the procurement process:

America’s air force misses the target

By John Gapper

Say what you like about the F-22, the world’s most advanced and expensive fighter jet, it is obviously fun to fly. One of these $350m aircraft dipped and fluttered around the sky above the Farnborough air show this week in a bravura show of agility.

The F-22 is a supersonic stealth aircraft dreamt up at the end of the cold war to impose American air superiority over Soviet fighters. In recent exercises, its invisibility and advanced radar and avionics allowed it to shoot down 80 aircraft for every time that it was hit itself.

The F-22’s party trick is to be able to pivot horizontally in mid-air as it sniffs around for a target. “The sensation is not: ‘Oh, my gosh, the nose is slipping out of control. It is ‘Oh, my gosh, I can get the nose to do what I want,’ ” said Al Norman, the F-22’s senior test pilot.

What impresses the US air force, however, is not what pleases the US government. The F-22 has become a symbol of what Robert Gates, the defence secretary, has dubbed “ ‘next-war-itis’ – the propensity of much of the defence establishment to be in favour of what might be needed in a future conflict”.

Mr Gates wants the US military instead to focus on the “war on terror” and asymmetric conflicts in which it has to work with allies to combat suicide bombers and insurgents in hot, dusty countries. The kind of air support that such campaigns require is helicopters and cargo aircraft, not a 21st-century stealth fighter jet.

As a result, he has stood firm against the USAF’s wish to have 381 F-22s to replace its ageing fleet of F-15s, a Vietnam-era fighter that has been repeatedly patched and upgraded. The US will buy only 183 and intends to make do instead with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, a forthcoming stealth aircraft that is cheaper and more versatile.

Mr Gates may be right that the F-22 will prove an unnecessary precaution in the world as we know it and that five squadrons is “a reasonable buy”. But there are two difficulties with his obstinate position, one military and the second financial.

The military problem is that air superiority is something the US takes for granted but is not inevitable. Mr Gates clearly believes the USAF is stuck in the past but he could equally be accused of being stuck in the present. While terrorism is the immediate threat, China’s military rise and Russia’s military resurgence are worries for the future.

Click here for the rest of the article.

Mountain Runner's Reading List

2008-06-18T15:25:00.000-07:00

If you have any interest at all in public diplomacy, you need to be reading Matt Armstrong, known to the blogosphere as Mountain Runner. He's recently come out with a public diplomacy reading list, which I've ganked wholesale because I'm so excited about it. (Mountain Runner cautions that it's a very preliminary list, though it looks like an excellent one to me; however, check back with his site in the coming days and weeks for even better versions.)

Readings on Public Diplomacy

A very preliminary reading list on public diplomacy. At this time, this list is not in any particular order and it will be expanded to include more. Click here to jump to the government reports section.

	Practicing Public Diplomacy: A Cold War Odyssey by Yale Richmond
	Total Cold War: Eisenhower's Secret Propaganda Battle at Home And Abroad by Kenneth Osgood
	Selling War: The British Propaganda Campaign Against American "Neutrality" in World War II by Nicholas Cull
	American Encounters with Arabs: The "Soft Power" of U.S. Public Diplomacy in the Middle East by William Rugh
	The First Resort of Kings: American Cultural Diplomacy in the Twentieth Century by Richard Arndt
	Losing Hearts and Minds?: Public Diplomacy and Strategic Influence in the Age of Terror by Carnes Lord
	Parting the Curtain: Propaganda, Culture, and the Cold War, 1945-1961 by Walter L. Hixson
	Information War: American Propaganda, Free Speech, and Opinion Control Since 9/11 by Nancy Sno

Click here to visit Mountain Runner's original post.

Dune: A Model of Political Warfare

2008-06-17T07:34:00.001-07:00

If you're looking for some good fiction to read - and you should be, since varied reading greatly increases intellectual dexterity - might I recommend Frank Herbert's 1965 novel Dune? Though written more than 40 years ago, Dune is not only well written, winning the inaugural Nebula Award for best sci-fi novel, but also touches upon a number of perennial issues.

The story involves a far-flung galactic empire and the feuding dynastic houses within it. (Some have compared the work to Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.) A variety of the tools of statecraft are employed in this struggle: parliamentary politics, economics, intelligence, assassination, insurgency and open warfare. The interrelationship between geography, ecology, culture and political struggle is strongly emphasized. Likewise, the importance of religion and the limits of technology are seen. In the midst of all this political intrigue we see the statesman - the leader possessing wisdom, heroism and moral rectitude.

In a post-Cold War world of irregular warfare, nationalistic movements, transnational terrorists, environmental concerns and rising economic powers, Dune remains a prescient work for any student of political warfare.

Al-Qaeda on the Defensive

2008-06-10T14:25:00.000-07:00

Today the Financial Times has an excellent article titled "Down but dangerous: How al-Qaeda has been pushed on to the defensive." The FT provides some encouraging evidence that the terrorist organization does not enjoy the level of international popularity it once held.

In the second half of the last year, Pakistani support for al-Qaeda has dropped by half. In Saudi Arabia, those who view al-Qaeda unfavorably now outnumber those who view it favorably by a margin of more than six to one. Moreover, over 60% of Saudis believe the Saudi military should pursue al-Qaeda fighters.

Such victories in the popularity polls do not necessarily translate into victories on the battlefield or in wilderness of mirrors that is the intelligence world. However, these numbers do indicate that al-Qaeda and its mufsidun allies are losing the battle for hearts and minds. And that is a good thing indeed.

Human Terrain System Loses Its First

2008-05-10T13:42:00.000-07:00

Last November we had the pleasure of telling you about the Army's Human Terrain System (HTS), teams of anthropologists who work with our soldiers to provide cultural support in the battle for hearts and minds. Sadly, we now report that HTS has now lost its first member in the line of duty. From the HTS website:

It is with deep sorrow that we must inform you of the tragic death of Michael Bhatia, our social scientist team member assigned to the Afghanistan Human Terrain Team #1, in support of Task Force Currahee based at FOB SALERNO, Khowst Province.

Michael was killed on May 7 when the Humvee he was riding in was struck by an IED. Michael was traveling in a convoy of four vehicles, which were en route to a remote sector of Khowst province. For many years, this part of Khowst had been plagued by a violent inter-tribal conflict concerning land rights. Michael had identified this tribal dispute as a research priority, and was excited to finally be able to visit this area. This trip was the brigade’s initial mission into the area, and it was their intention to initiate a negotiation process between the tribes.

Michael was in the lead vehicle with four other soldiers. Initial forensics indicate that the IED was triggered by a command detonated wire. Michael died immediately in the explosion. Two Army soldiers from Task Force Currahee were also killed in the attack, and two were critically injured.

During the course of his seven-month tour, Michael’s work saved the lives of both US soldiers and Afghan civilians. His former brigade commander, COL Marty Schweitzer testified before Congress on 24 April that the Human Terrain Team of which Michael was a member helped the brigade reduce its lethal operations by 60 to 70%, increase the number of districts supporting the Afghan government from 15 to 83, and reduce Afghan civilian deaths from over 70 during the previous brigade's tour to 11 during the 4-82’s tour. A copy of Colonel Schweitzer’s comments can be found here.

We will remember Michael for his personal courage, his willingness to endure danger and hardship, his incisive intelligence, his playful sense of humor, his confidence, his devoted character, and his powerful inner light. While his life has ended, he has not disappeared without a trace. He left a powerful effect behind, which will be felt by his friends and colleagues and by the people of Afghanistan for many years to come.

Russia Increases Troop Numbers in Georgia

2008-04-30T06:23:00.000-07:00

Russia has announced that it will be reinforcing its military presence in two break-away regions of the Republic of Georgia, Reuters reports. Russia claims these soldiers (pictured left) are 'peacekeepers,' but given that many of the separatists desire absorption of their territories by Russia, their true nature as occupiers is fairly clear.

All this comes just days after Moscow threatened to use "military means" against Georgia to defend its "compatriots" in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A few days earlier, a Russian fighter jet, operating in Georgian airspace, shot down a Georgian drone, as this clip from Reuters clearly shows:

(Apologies for the ad that Reuters has embedded on the front end of the video. Just twiddle your thumbs for a bit.)

International Piracy: The Real Deal

2008-04-29T10:03:00.000-07:00

The other evening we were watching Wes Anderson's Life Aquatic, a film which - somewhat mockingly - includes some international pirates. I was reminded, however, that this is a serious problem that still plagues much of the world's seas, and doubtless would threaten even more of them if it were not for the US Navy.

As Standish has recently pointed out, private security contractors are helping to fight this menace. Below is most of his article:

A report released by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich... cites statistics from the International Maritime Bureau showing that piracy is on the rise. Recent news accounts regarding French and Spanish vessels reinforce this story.

Within the private sector, shipping, oil and insurance firms have been impacted by a significant and long-term increase in pirate attacks mounted against off-shore oil platforms, tankers and cargo vessels traveling throughout the world's shipping lanes. In strategic choke points like the Malacca Straits, large, slow-moving container ships and tug-pulled drilling rigs are easily approached and boarded by the much smaller, agile and quicker boats used by today's pirates. These attacks, measured in terms of ship and cargo losses as well as increased insurance premiums, have amounted to losses of up to US$16 billion annually.

That's where PSCs come in.

At the federal level, both the Department of Homeland Security and the US Coast Guard have solicited advice from PSCs on matters of maritime security. For example, after the 9/11 attacks, a number of British firms - including Marine Underwater Security Consultants and Hart Security - were invited to participate in a committee drafting of the US Coast Guard's ISPS Code submission to the International Maritime Organisation. After the bombing of the USS Cole, the PSC Blackwater was awarded a contract to train over 50,000 US sailors in the use of small arms to defend their ships from terrorist attacks.

This US public-private interface has not been limited to merely an advisory or training role. At the local government level, the US has launched a number of pilot programs using the firm Seawolf Marine Patrol to provide manned guarding services for a US ports. Overseas, the US navy has relied upon the PSC Glenn Defense Marine Asia to provide security - complete with armed ghurkhas - for its naval vessels while in port.

The United States is not the only employer of maritime PSCs:

Middle Eastern and Asian states have hired PSCs like Britam to provide training for their own maritime security forces to protect state-owned high-risk maritime assets. In the wake of the 2002 assault on the Limburg tanker in Yemeni coastal waters, for example, Hart Security was hired to train the Yemeni Navy in waterborne anti-terrorist tactics. African states have turned to PSCs in an even more proactive capacity....

Traditionally, various members of the maritime industry more broadly have hired PSCs in risk mitigation roles. For example, the marine insurance industry utilizes PSCs in various political risk advisory, due diligence, asset recovery and maritime kidnap and ransom (k&r) services associated with piracy and terrorism.... Large shipping and oil companies sensitive to increasingly violent pirate attacks against their oil tankers and drilling rigs have turned to PSCs like Background Asia Risk Solutions to provide armed personnel and armored escort vessels to "ride shotgun" while escorting these expensive assets through some of the world's most dangerous waterways.

Charges Dropped in Haditha Case

2008-03-29T06:14:00.000-07:00

Do you remember Haditha? No one can find it on a map, but in November 2005 eight US marines were accused of indiscriminately killing 24 unarmed Iraqi civilians, including women and children. After a time the story faded from the news cycle, but left the public with a general feeling that our boys were committing atrocities in Iraq.

Well, today the BBC reports that Lance Corporal Stephen Tatum (pictured), 26, has had all charges against him dropped. Moreover, he is the fifth of the eight to go free. The case continues to unfold and there may yet be convictions for the other three. But at the very most we are looking at an incident of much less gravity than originally reported. Don't expect Time magazine to run any front-page retractions, however...

Foreign Policy Has a Sex Appeal

2008-03-10T06:10:00.000-07:00

Why sex and foreign policy aren’t as different as you might think

By Colin Parks

Would you believe that having sex can provide you with a better guide to effective foreign policy than any political theory out there? In fact, if our policy makers spent more time nurturing their sex lives, they could find themselves more attuned to the most effective tools of statecraft. This should come as no surprise and I’ll tell you why.

In order to have sex, you have three options. You can buy it, i.e. prostitution; you can take it by force, i.e. rape; or you can seduce it, i.e. the art of romance. Buying sex is usually only a temporary fix and an expensive one at that; most prostitutes don’t offer blue-light specials. Furthermore, it might not be the most desirable experience unless a dingy motel room, cheap champagne, and the incessant glow of neon lights is your idea of a romantic getaway. Forcing sex might be desirable for some but for most it simply isn’t worth the likely consequences, i.e. spending the rest of your life behind bars in an orange jump suit contemplating escape with a spoon and a bed spring.

How then, do you use seduction to get sex? You first need to possess certain elements of attraction such as good looks, an appealing personality, and some sort of alluring feature that compels your intended companion to get a little frisky with you; generally a few sprays of cologne will turn the trick. Second, you need to have a strategy; sex on first contact isn’t usually the rule but rather the exception. You need to take the time to get to know your companion, i.e. enduring a few awkward dates, engaging in conversation more enlightening than the weather, and actually noticing little things like eye color and the type of shoes your companion is wearing; observing bust size doesn’t qualify! Finally, you have to set the mood; a few candles and some sultry music will do. A little tender, loving, care can go a long way so don’t be afraid to sharpen your massage skills. What’s more, when the deed is done, you can’t just fall asleep or abruptly leave. It pays to cuddle and stay around for breakfast. While it might take a bit longer and require more finesse, if executed skillfully seduction can result in quality, long lasting, and meaningful sex, without the messy consequences of prostitution or rape.

So why is sex similar to foreign policy? If it isn’t already apparent, nations have three options when deciding how to achieve a particular foreign policy objective. Like sex, they can buy it, i.e. with bribery or economic sanctions; they can take it, i.e. with military force; or they can seduce it, i.e. creating an allure via soft power. The first two options are hard power methods frequently used to coerce or compel an adversary to succumb to your will, tangible instruments that clearly indicate a nation’s desire to alter behavior or gain the advantage in a given scenario. However, these options can have dire consequences. Economic sanctions, bribery, and war can be costly, extremely risky, and lacking in quality assurance. Moreover, military force and the careless use of economic sanctions can produce damaging ripple effects that can be difficult to suppress. One only needs to look at the situation in Iraq to ascertain that the friction and uncertainty of war can create more problems than solutions, and the case of Cuba to realize that buying your objectives doesn’t necessarily work.

The seduction of soft power attempts to alleviate some of the pains associated with the misuse of hard power by using public diplomacy and cultural diplomacy to persuade an adversary rather than coerce it. This implies confidence in one’s ideals and principles, and a willingness and ability to export them. For the United States, this means accentuating our most appealing qualities such as democracy, the rule of law, plurality, and freedom. It also means tapping into the alluring features of culture such as music and art. These elements can potentially convince an adversary to view the U.S. in a more positive light; a nation that finds us attractive is more likely to emulate our behavior and subsequently comply with our demands. Like a seductress, however, the purveyor of soft power must be patient and willing to invest in a little TLC.

So maybe the hippie mantra “Make Love, Not War!” has a point. If we take the time to seduce our target and tap into the softer side of foreign policy, we have a greater chance of securing our foreign policy objectives in a manner that ensures lasting relationships. Like a good lover, the U.S. must be willing to sustain its soft power initiatives over time by not abandoning these initiatives when the deed is done and sticking around for a little cuddle time.

Colin Parks is a graduate student at The Institute of World Politics in Washington where he studies the elements of statecraft in national security and foreign affairs. He can be contacted at parks@iwp.edu,

Britain Kow Tows to China

2008-03-07T09:56:00.000-08:00

The Daily Mail released a scathing article about the British Olympic committee's decision to gag its athletes at the Beijing Olympics. They write:

British Olympic chiefs are to force athletes to sign a contract promising not to speak out about China's appalling human rights record – or face being banned from traveling to Beijing.

The move – which raises the specter of the order given to the England football team to give a Nazi salute in Berlin in 1938 – immediately provoked a storm of protest....

From the moment they sign up, the competitors – likely to include the Queen's granddaughter Zara Phillips and world record holder Paula Radcliffe – will be effectively gagged from commenting on China's politics, human rights abuses or illegal occupation of Tibet.

Prince Charles has already let it be known that he will not be going to China, even if he is invited by Games organizers.

His views on the Communist dictatorship are well known, after this newspaper revealed how he described China's leaders as “appalling old waxworks” in a journal written after he attended the handover of Hong Kong. The Prince is also a long-time supporter of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan leader....

The [British Olympic Association] took the decision even though other countries – including the United States, Canada, Finland, and Australia – have pledged that their athletes would be free to speak about any issue concerning China.

To date, only New Zealand and Belgium have banned their athletes from giving political opinions while competing at the Games....

However, human rights campaigner Lord David Alton condemned the move as “making a mockery” of the right to free speech.

The controversial decision to award the Olympics to Beijing means this year's Games have the potential to be the most politically charged since 1936.

Adolf Hitler used the Munich Games that year to glorify his Nazi regime, although his claims of Aryan superiority were undermined by black American athlete Jesse Owens winning four gold medals.

More recently, there was a mass boycott of the 1980 Games in Moscow in protest at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan....

Former Olympic rowing champion Matthew Pinsent has already criticized the Chinese authorities over the training methods used on children, which he regarded as tantamount to abuse. Young gymnasts told him they were repeatedly beaten during training sessions....

Lord Alton said: “It is extraordinary to bar athletes from expressing an opinion about China's human-rights record. About the only justification for participating in the Beijing Games is that it offers an opportunity to encourage more awareness about human rights.

“Imposing compulsory vows of silence is an affront to our athletes, and in China it will be viewed as acquiescence.

“Each year 8,000 executions take place in China, political and religious opinion is repressed, journalists are jailed and the internet and overseas broadcasts are heavily censored.

“For our athletes to be told that they may not make any comment makes a mockery of our own country's belief in free speech.”

Merchant of Death: Arrested

2008-03-06T05:30:00.000-08:00

This just in from the BBC: Viktor Bout, the international arms trafficking kingpin we told you about in October, has been arrested in Thailand. Though Thai police picked him up, it appears they acted on an American warrant which was related to Mr. Bout's arming of left-wing Columbian guerrillas.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union Mr. Bout, who appears to have some sort of military background, began snatching up both weapons and the transport planes needed to ship them around the world. The arms he supplied have fueled many conflicts in the Third World, often going to both sides in many wars.

Al-Qaeda is Losing the War of Minds

2008-03-05T05:45:00.000-08:00

Contrary to popular belief, the US may not be losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world, so says Peter Wehner in a Financial Times guest piece from which comes today's post title. He writes,

In November 2007 Sayyid Imam al-Sharif (“Dr Fadl”) published his book, Rationalizations on Jihad in Egypt and the World, in serialised form. Mr Sharif, who is Egyptian, argues that the use of violence to overthrow Islamic governments is religiously unlawful and practically harmful. He also recommends the formation of a special Islamic court to try Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s number two and its ideological leader, and calls the attacks on September 11 2001 a “catastrophe for all Muslims”.

Mr Sharif’s words are significant because he was once a mentor to Mr Zawahiri. Mr Sharif, who wrote the book in a Cairo prison, is “a living legend within the global jihadist movement”, according to Jarret Brachman, a terrorism expert.

Another important event occurred in October 2007, when Sheikh Abd Al-‘Aziz bin Abdallah Aal Al-Sheikh, the highest religious authority in Saudi Arabia, issued a fatwa prohibiting Saudi youth from engaging in jihad abroad. It states: “I urge my brothers the ulama [the top class of Muslim clergy] to clarify the truth to the public . . . to warn [youth] of the consequences of being drawn to arbitrary opinions and [religious] zeal that is not based on religious knowledge.” The target of the fatwa is obvious: Mr bin Laden.

A month earlier Sheikh Salman al-Awdah, an influential Saudi cleric whom Mr bin Laden once lionized, wrote an “open letter” condemning Mr bin Laden. “Brother Osama, how much blood has been spilt? How many innocents among children, elderly, the weak, and women have been killed and made homeless in the name of al-Qaeda?” Sheikh Awdah wrote. “The ruin of an entire people, as is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq ... cannot make Muslims happy.”

Mr. Wehner goes on to describe what he calls the "Anbar Awakening":

Just 18 months ago Anbar province was the stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq; today it is known as the birthplace of an Iraqi and Islamic grass-roots uprising against al-Qaeda as an organisation and bin Ladenism as an ideology. It is an extraordinary transformation: Iraqis en masse siding with America, the “infidel” and a western “occupying power”, to defeat Islamic militants.

Finally, Mr. Wehner turns to the numbers:

Not surprisingly, al-Qaeda’s stock is falling in much of the Arab and Islamic world. A recent survey found that in January less than a quarter of Pakistanis approved of Mr bin Laden, compared with 46 per cent last August, while backing for al-Qaeda fell from 33 per cent to 18 per cent.

According to a July 2007 report from the Pew Global Attitudes Project, “large and growing numbers of Muslims in the Middle East and elsewhere [are] rejecting Islamic extremism”. The percentage of Muslims saying suicide bombing is justified in the defense of Islam has declined in seven of the eight Arab countries where trend data are available. In Lebanon, for example, 34 per cent of Muslims say such suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified; in 2002, 74 per cent expressed this view. We are also seeing large drops in support for Mr bin Laden. These have occurred since the Iraq war began.

Disturbing News out of China

2008-03-04T05:37:00.000-08:00

There are two stories from East Asia today that are disturbing enough by themselves, but are particularly troublesome when read side by side. In the first instance, China has announced that it will be raising military spending 18% this year. But remember, the Chinese routinely lie about the size of their military spending. Expert estimates (such as the Pentagon's latest report on Chinese military strength) suggest that the real figure is two or three times the reported figure.

Simultaneously, a second story has come out, which was surely meant to be read in light of the first. Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, has been warned that Taiwan would pay a dear price for any independence-like moves. This threat is well-timed, of course, to coincide with a referendum in Taiwan on whether or not to press for UN membership, something China routinely blocks for the island.

"If the Chen Shui-bian authorities should stubbornly continue down the path, they will surely pay a dear price," a parliamentary spokesman in China said. "We are fully prepared to repulse any adventurous activities aimed at Taiwan independence, and prevent anyone from separating Taiwan from China."

That's a nice way of saying, "Remember that giant leap in military spending we just announced? We're not afraid to use it."

Sticking it to Western Europe

2008-03-04T05:15:00.000-08:00

The BBC reports this morning that "Ukraine has said it may restrict Russian gas supplies to Europe if gas monopoly Gazprom goes ahead with further cuts in Ukrainian supply."

This makes perfectly good sense to me. For too long Western Europe has been cozying up to Putin's Russia and ignoring the desire to rebuild the Soviet empire in the "near abroad." Should Ukraine cut gas supplies to the rest of Europe, it would send a clear message: This is what the Russians want to do to the free world. Are you willing to stand with us or not?

Millions of Chinese Face Water Shortages

2008-02-27T04:57:00.000-08:00

The Financial Times reports this morning that China is having major water problems:

The diversion of water to Beijing for the Olympics and for big hydropower projects threatens the lives of millions of peasant farmers in China’s north-western provinces, according to a senior Chinese government official.

In an interview with the Financial Times, An Qiyuan, a member and former chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee for Shaanxi province and former Communist party chief of Shaanxi, warned of an impending social and environmental disaster because of overuse of scarce water resources.

In a critical tone seldom heard from Chinese officials, Mr An called on Beijing to provide compensation to the provinces that have been told to pump their cleanest water to the capital in order to ensure potable supplies during the Olympics.

There are probably a great many lessons that can be learned from this story, but I'll limit myself to two:

* Totalitarian economies don't work. But China's been instituting all kinds of market reforms, you say. True. But this is classic proof that, at the end of the day, Beijing will still interfere with the market and risk the lives of its own citizens.

* China has a serious propaganda and influence system that reaches around the globe. This sounds like a conspiracy theory, but stop and think about it: How did Beijing convince the International Olympic Committee they should host the Games? By giving the impression that their capacity to do was was far greater than it in fact was. If they've hoodwinked us about that, where else might they be trying to deceive us?

Democrats Model Political Warfare - Or Lack Thereof

2008-02-21T06:15:00.000-08:00

No doubt many publications have written about the comparative use of technology by Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton, though this article from the Financial Times caught my eye. While the story is about domestic politics, it provides lessons that are applicable to foreign policy as well.

One passage notes that,

Mr Obama... has run the model new technology campaign, in which staff and volunteers have the autonomy to make their own decisions.

This is in contrast to the Clinton campaign, which has a more top-down approach. Peter Leyden, director of the New Politics Institute explains:

Even businesses find it hard to change their organizational structure to fit the demands of new technology. But for political campaigns, which are classic command-and-control operations, it is particularly difficult. Mrs Clinton maintains a competent and solid website but Mr Obama has made it the central organizing tool of his campaign.

The article goes on to explain that,

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Mrs Clinton has maintained a much less flexible campaign than her surging opponent.

In the world of national security, the question of centralized command-and-control versus decentralized networks is a hot topic. The reasons are fairly obvious: terrorists and other non-governmental actors are increasingly organizing themselves as networks, creating great flexibility and making it very difficult to thoroughly stomp them out. Should the military, CIA and State adopt network organizations themselves, to compensate? Plenty of ink has already been spilled on this question, but I would simply add that these are not uncharted waters for us; the Obama campaign understands how to run a flexible and delegated operation. If they know how, there's no good reason the government couldn't learn.

A second lesson to be learned by foreign policy types from this election relates to technology and the various media of communication. The FT explains that,

The Obama website offers almost instant video replays of his speeches, which are also packaged by Obama officials for YouTube. A few mouse clicks from each webcast provides a simple procedure to make online donations. Users can set up blogs, join the Obama Facebook group and even download ring tones featuring recordings of his speeches.

He's fighting his battle on every front, using every tool avaliable to him. While the various media in Iraq might be slightly different, the lesson is the same: don't be content with just one method of getting out your message; don't just accept what worked last year. If people can innovate and come up with creative ways to win elections at home, you'd think they could do likewise with the American message abroad.

"It's Not Prudent to Fly over an Aircraft Carrier"

2008-02-14T05:31:00.000-08:00

We are indebted to the good folks over at Samizdat Cafe for bringing today's story to our attention.*

It would seem that the Russian military has decided that overflying our aircraft carriers is the new cool. From the Washington Post:

A long-range Russian bomber buzzed the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in the Pacific Ocean last weekend, while a second bomber circled about 50 miles away, U.S. officials said. The Nimitz scrambled fighter jets to intercept the Russian warplanes.

In a statement carried Tuesday by Russian news wires, Russian air force spokesman Alexander Drobyshevsky said the Tu-95 bombers conducted their Saturday flight "in strict compliance with the international rules of using airspace over neutral waters and without any violation of other countries' borders."

In case you had a little trouble reading between the lines, that's Soviet-speak for, "Ya, we flew over your carrier; what you gonna do 'bout it?" We can probably expect more of this sort of thing in the months and years to come:

Last August, Russian President Vladimir Putin [affectionately known to this blog as Pooty-Poot] revived the Soviet-era practice of long-range patrols by strategic bombers over the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans....

Asked what message he thought the Russians were sending, [Adm. Gary] Roughead, [Chief of Naval Operations,] said, "I think what we are seeing is a Russian military... particularly in the case of the navy, desiring to emerge as a global navy."

Although "it's not prudent to fly over an aircraft carrier," he said, "we knew they were coming. We saw them coming. We detected them at the appropriate time. We launched our alert aircraft, who escorted the Russian aircraft." He said the United States has not asked for an explanation, nor have the Russians offered one.

*(We'd also like to thank them for the headline, which we ganked.)

Chinese Spies Arrested in US

2008-02-12T04:45:00.000-08:00

Front page news on today's Financial Times:

The US on Monday announced a series of arrests in cases involving alleged spying by the Chinese government, including one where a Pentagon official was alleged to have helped Beijing obtain secret information.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested Gregg Bergersen, a Pentagon employee with top secret security clearances, for allegedly providing a Chinese government agent with information about US weapons sales to Taiwan. In another case, Chung Dongfan, a former Boeing employee, was arrested for economic espionage involving US military programmes.

The arrests highlight the growing concern in the US about Chinese military and industrial espionage. Kenneth Wainstein, assistant attorney-general for national security, on Monday said the Bergersen case was a “classic espionage operation.”

Mr Wainstein said it involved “a foreign government focused on accessing our military secrets, foreign operatives who effectively use stealth and guile to gain that access, and an American government official who is willing to betray both his oath of public office and the duty of loyalty we rightly demand from every American citizen”.

Mr Bergersen, a 51-year-old Defence Security Co-operation Agency employee, was accused of providing sensitive information to Kuo Taishen, a 58-year-old Taiwanese-born US national who operates a furniture business in New Orleans, who allegedly sent the information to a Chinese government official, sometimes over encrypted e-mail.

The Justice department on Monday released an affidavit from an FBI investigator supporting the criminal complaint against Mr Bergersen, Mr Kuo, and Kang Yuxin, a 33-year-old Chinese woman who allegedly acted as a “cut out”, or intermediary, with the Chinese official, who is referred to as “PRC Official A”.

The affidavit describes a series of phone conversations and e-mails during which Mr Bergersen and Mr Kuo would arrange meetings where the Pentagon official would provide information about US weapons sales to Taiwan. But the affidavit also makes clear that Mr Bergersen appeared not to know that Mr Kuo was a Chinese agent.

The document says the PRC official’s contact details also appeared in the address books of a former US defence contractor, who was separately convicted for acting as a Chinese spy and violating US export control laws.

The Justice department said Mr Kuo cultivated Mr Bergersen and other US government employees, who provided him with classified information. One official said the investigation is ongoing.

Click here to read the rest of the article.

Putin Continues Soviet Slide

2008-02-09T13:42:00.000-08:00

The proof that Russian President Vladimir "Pooty-Poot" Putin wants to bring back Soviet-style international thuggery continues to roll in. Two stories highlight the problem.

In Europe, the Ukrainians have managed to gain admittance to the WTO before their former masters, a major slight to Putin's Russia. His response? He's threatening to cut off their gas supplies again, just like he did - to no avail - during the Orange Revolution.

On the other side of the world, the Japanese report an incursion by a Russian Tupolev 95 bomber into their airspace. Japan scrambled 22 planes in response and has lodged an official protest with the Russian embassy, but given that the two nations haven't gotten around to formally ending World War II yet, I wouldn't place must hope in the diplomatic option.

State Department Supports Marxist Opposition

2008-01-23T14:51:00.000-08:00

J. Michael Waller over at PoliticalWarfare.Org carried a story last month I wish I'd seen a lot sooner.

Apparently the State Department gave a high-level reception to the opposition from El Salvador. No big deal, right? We believe in democracy and meet with opposition politicians all the time.

Except that the opposition in El Salvador is not democratic; it's the Marxist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN). We've seen these guys before; we fought them during the Cold War. They murdered US Marines in the Zona Rosa massacre. (A colleague of mine lost scores of friends to the FMLN's guns, which hardly endears me.) During the Cold War they were backed by the Soviets and today they continue to work with the FARC narcoterrorists of Colombia, Fidel Castro, and Palestinian terrorists. Their current attempts to unseat the Salvadorian government are being bank-rolled by Hugo Chavez.

But who exactly is this government that the FMLN is trying to overthrow? Well, for starters, it's the only country in the Western Hemisphere that still has troops in Iraq. And this is how we reward them? Meanwhile, Mauricio Funes, the FMLN's presidential candidate, has been busying himself endorsing folks for the up coming US elections.

Soviet Thug Suppresses Azeris

2008-01-22T06:05:00.001-08:00

A few months ago I had the opportunity to hear Mikhail Gorbachev give a lecture at the University of Dallas. I think he was expecting a warmer welcome than he received. Not that the UD community was rude, but no one seemed to buy this line that Gorbachev is a great democratic reformer who brought down Communism. In fact, he was a thug who tried to save the Party and failed.

Today is an important anniversary that underlines that point. On this day in 1990, President Gorbachev ordered the Red Army into Soviet Azerbaijan to put down civil unrest. Azerbaijan's President Elmira Kafarova and Communist Party politician Boris Yeltsin both condemned the move.

Blackwater Rescues Volunteers

2008-01-07T06:43:00.000-08:00

The Grand Rapids Press has reported that three American orphanage workers in Kenya - Aubrie Vander Mey, 19, Jamie Cook, 20, and Brittanie Vander Mey, 21 (pictured above) - were rescued from post-election violence by Blackwater Worldwide.

[Dean] Vander Mey [Brittanie and Aubrie's father] said he started calling government officials, congressmen -- whomever he could think of to get his daughters and their friend home.

"I was not getting whole lot of answers," he said. "They said, 'Stay safe; don't move.' I wasn't satisfied with the 'stay put.' That's what they were telling us: 'You're in harm's way, but don't move.'"

Hiring a helicopter wasn't an option. Vander Mey said he was told it would $20,000 to rent one for 30 minutes, and news stations and the Red Cross had already rented most of those available.

Vander Mey said he recalled relatives were friends with the family of Blackwater founder and Holland native Erik Prince and decided to give the company a call.

"They had internal contacts and everything," Vander Mey said. "They had people who could help."

He said Blackwater lined up a 10-person plane, rescued the women and other international workers and flew them to Nairobi. The three women then began the trip to Grand Rapids on Sunday afternoon.

Two Stories in Today's FT

2007-12-17T07:48:00.000-08:00

The Financial Times, a centerist British papaer, ran two interesting stories today. The first concerns the situation in Baghdad and the apparent success of the surge. The article beings:

Baghdad’s Shurja market is open for business. The capital’s central commercial district, which earlier this year was virtually shut down by repeated car bombings and sniper fire, is now thronging with residents doing last-minute shopping before this week’s Eid holiday.

Six months after the “surge” of US troops finished deploying into Baghdad, Iraq’s capital is breathing again.

Shia militias still hold sway over large areas of the city, and around a half a dozen people are still reported killed every day in shootings, bombings and mortar barrages. But even if the return to normal life is only a temporary respite, Baghdadis say they are enjoying the moment.

Residents who once hunkered down in their homes and adopted false identities to shield themselves from sectarian death squads now venture out to work, shop, or simply visit restaurants and parks.

The US military says violence has fallen by 60 per cent nationwide over the past six months, an impression that is borne out by anecdotal evidence from Iraqis. The Iraqi Red Crescent also reports that the country’s number of internally displaced fell for the first time in October, when 110,000 people returned to their homes.

The second story concerns the wasteful spending at the UN, and American efforts to stop it:

Officials of United Nations member states met throughout the weekend to try to avert a budget crisis over what the Bush administration has branded the largest proposed increase in spending in the organisation's 62-year history.

The UN's budget committee had set a deadline of this Wednesday to approve a request from Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, for $4.2bn (£2bn, €2.9bn) to cover the UN's regular expenditure over the next two years.

But with the US digging in its heels over likely additional expenditure that it says could boost this total by a further $1bn, the UN faced the prospect of entering 2008 without a budget.

When Mr Ban presented his first budget as secretary-general on October 25, he said the amount was "not much, considering the demands upon us". Requesting $23m - or half a percentage point - increase for 2008-2009, he said: "Never has the world so needed a strong United Nations, yet never have our resources been stretched so thin." The same day, however, UN officials acknowledged that cost adjustments had already boosted the bottom line to $4.4bn, while additional items not accounted for would carry the total to more than $4.6bn.

In a closed-door meeting of member states last week, Mark Wallace, US deputy ambassador to the UN, said spending could be as high as $5.2bn - a 25 per cent rise - in view of further demands for funding expected in the coming year. "With the largest budget increase in history," he said, "the credibility of the UN is at stake."

Part of the US complaint is that three out of every four dollars of the regular budget go on the salaries of 10,000 staff and other related costs. "The . . . increase does not go directly to humanitarian or development aid but rather to increasing the size of the UN secretariat bureaucracy," Mr Wallace said.

Getting the Arabic Right

2007-12-07T16:37:00.000-08:00

In reading over Mitt Romney's website in August, I was appalled by his very first issue position: 'Defeating the Jihadists.' The former Massachusetts governor went on to explain that,

the defeat of this radical and violent faction of Islam must be achieved through a combination of American resolve, international effort, and the rejection of violence by moderate, modern, mainstream Muslims.

In spite of this, he had embraced – unknowingly, we shall hope – the radical Wahabist understanding of the term 'jihad,' which simply has the literal meaning of 'struggle.' To many, probably most Muslims, this struggle is an interior one, a personal one, a spiritual one: suicide bombers are not holy warriors – 'mujahideen' – striving to know or serve the Almighty, they are evildoers properly termed 'mufsidun,' who are engaging in a psychopathic war against society, 'hirabah.'

I notified the Romney campaign of their mistake and the website has since changed. While there has been no adoption of the terms 'mufsidun' or 'hirabah,' terms such as 'jihad', and 'Islam' are always preceded by 'violent' or 'extreme' to clarify that this is not the mainstream variety in question. The headline now reads "Confronting Radical Jihad".

Mitt Romney was not the only presidential candidate to make this linguistic mistake. Ron Paul's website refers to "our direct enemies, the jihadists."

By accepting the Wahabist misappropriation of the term 'jihad,' these candidates and countless other Americans give our enemies further ammunition in the war of ideas, implicitly accepting that the moderate Muslims are wrong in their understanding of Islam, that jihad does demand the killing of innocent American families.

Conversely, use of the terms 'mufsidun' and 'hirabah' – and efforts to educate the American people about them – would not only demonstrate a presidential candidate's command of the complexities involved in the War on Terror but would also strike a blow in the ideological conflict that is at the heart of this struggle. These terms convey exactly what Romney and others are trying to say, and they say it in a way that a majority of the world's 1.2 billion Muslims understand.

The issues pages for John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich are happily free of this misappropriation of Arabic terms. Whether this happened because the candidates know the proper use of the words or are simply listening to thoughtful advisors, I tip my hat to them all. (This is not to say that all have excellent plans for the Middle East or the War on Terror; some make profound mistakes, but they are not this one. Perhaps more blog posts are in order.)

Mike Huckabee's website has gone so far as to explain that,

Fighting smart means learning the neighborhood, achieving a level of political, religious, and cultural sophistication about the Arab and Islamic worlds that will pay huge dividends for us.... I will support moderates, not extremists, with no favoring of Sunnis or Shiites. The long-term solution to terror is to empower moderates in the region.

While 'moderate' is probably not the best term - Christians, would you like to be designated as 'moderate Christians'? Kind of makes you sound wishy-washy, doesn't it? - that's a good start.

(Special thanks go out to J. Michael Waller of the Institute of World Politics, for his excellent text on the matter, Fighting the War of Ideas Like a Real War.)

Afghans 'still hopeful on future'

2007-12-03T06:20:00.000-08:00

"Most Afghans are relatively hopeful about their future," the BBC reports, reflecting information collected in a recent poll.

They also support the current Afghan government and the presence of overseas troops, and oppose the Taleban.

But the poll suggests that Afghans are slightly less optimistic than a year ago, and are frustrated at the slow pace of reconstruction efforts.

Charney Research spoke to 1,377 people in October and November in all 34 provinces for the BBC, ABC and ARD.

This is the third such survey, and is published to coincide with the sixth anniversary of the fall of the Taleban.

Overall, the figures indicate that the peaceful north of Afghanistan is significantly more satisfied than the troubled south. Most dissatisfaction is found in the south-west, where the Taleban are most active.

The poll suggests that despite another year of conflict, confidence and hope have been dented only a little in the past 12 months.

Boycotting the Beijing Games

2007-11-30T19:29:00.000-08:00

I'm boycotting the Beijing Olympics. No, I have not been invited to participate, nor was I ever really planning on attending.

Normally I'm kind of opposed to boycotts. In the modern economy, revenue streams can be very complicated and corporations are often wholly- or partially-owned subsidiaries of some other company. The goals of many boycotts are ambiguous and the message intended to be sent and the means by which it will be sent are often unclear. Furthermore, the time span for most boycotts is vague: if the boycott's goals are not achieved in a timely manner, will it drag on indefinitely?

To address such questions, I figured I'd post a small manifesto for my Beijing Olympic boycott:

What is to be boycotted?

Coverage of the Games, in print or on television, including the opening and closing ceremonies. Any merchandise is also out.

How long will the boycott last?

The length of the Games, 8-24 August 2008.

What is the goal of the boycott?

I am under no illusion that the infinitesimal amount of money the Chinese regime will lose due to my boycott will go noticed. Nor am I under the illusion that millions will flock to my side, creating a mass movement that will in some way harm the regime. (Though I must confess that, if this happened, I would not be opposed.)

Instead, this boycott is aimed at educating fellow Americans about the evils of the Chinese regime. Inevitably there will be get-togethers to watch the opening ceremony; I plan on being in the next room telling folks why I'm not watching the TV. The list of reasons is so extensive I struggle to find the right place to start:

* The Chinese regime has supported the military junta in Burma for years; had the Chinese wanted to stop the suppression of monastically-lead pro-democracy demonstrations this year, it could have. It didn't.

*The Chinese regime conducting ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang, intentionally conducting nuclear tests upwind of population centers of Turkic Uyghur populations, releasing violent criminals into Xinjiang to help kill of the Uyghurs, and settling large numbers of heavily-armed ethnic Han Chinese to drive them out.

*The Chinese regime is destroying Tibetan culture, to such an extent that the Dahli Lama has threatened not to reincarnate himself in Chinese-controlled Tibet, so oppressive is the environment.

*The Chinese regime and its various state-owned industries stealing American commercial secrets left and right. This is not free trade, this is industrial espionage, intellectual piracy. Under the guise of winning jobs for their own people, the Chinese regime demands that most products sold in China be made in China; this allows them to copy any and every design for products made there. (And have no doubts, they are copying with a vengeance.)

*The Chinese regime routinely hacks American networks, trying to steal military and political secrets from the government and contractors.

*The Chinese regime is busy subverting South Pacific island nations, as it tries to out-maneuver Taiwan for diplomatic influence in the region. This subversion has included - but is not limited to - support for the coup in Fiji.

*The Chinese regime has armed the Taliban, thereby threatening the lives of Afghans, Americans and their other allies, and delaying democracy and development in that nation.

*The Chinese regime suppresses democracy at home, heavily censors the internet, makes use of slave labor, oppressing the Catholic Church, poisons its own rivers and engages in more abuses than I have time to type.

*Oh, yes. And the Chinese regime has displaced 1.5 million of its own people to build the Olympic Park in Beijing. And you thought use of eminent domain was out of control here...

Return of the Airship?

2007-11-25T06:02:00.000-08:00

A 170-foot non-rigid airship, the Polar 400, made its maiden flight the day after Thanksgiving; its revolutionary design may result in a low-cost alternative to heavier-than-air unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The Virginian-Pilot carried the story, complete with exclusive photos.

"It's very responsive. It's the most maneuverable blimp I've ever flown," said test pilot Doug McFadden. "To my knowledge, no one has mounted an engine on a non-rigid surface, and no one has used hydraulic propulsion to do it," explained Alan Ram, head a propulsion for the project.

Blackwater Airships, a unit of Blackwater Worldwide, designed the airship to carry intelligence-gathering cameras, sensors and communications gear for counterterrorism, counternarcotics and border security operations. The vehicle is unmanned and piloted by remote control from the ground.

"With a few engineering innovations, Blackwater hopes to turn a time-tested platform - the Navy used blimps to watch for enemy submarines in World War II - into a modern tool for combating terrorism and for other 21st-century needs," the Virginian-Pilot explained.

Kremlin Detains Garry Kasparov

2007-11-24T07:52:00.000-08:00

As if there were not already enough reasons to distrust Pooty-Poot's Russia, here is one more. The BBC reports that Garry Kasparov, opposition leader and former world chess champion, has been detained by the Kremlin.

When Kasparov's Other Russia Party, recently banned from December's parliamentary elections, attempted to march to the Electoral Commission, the police moved in. The election has been a contentious issue for Other Russia, a coalition which brings together leftists, nationalists and mainstream politicians; their appeal to the country's Supreme Court, disputing the election ban, was dismissed.

However, the BBC's Richard Galpin in Moscow report that "attending the rally for the first time was the leader of one of the mainstream liberal parties - a sign that the movement is growing." Let us hope that, with Western support, the opposition can mobilize in a powerful way. Sadly, I will not holding my breath.

NYPD Goes International

2007-11-20T11:14:00.000-08:00

Serviam magazine reports that the New York Police Department, faced with the threat of terrorism, with only limited help from the CIA and FBI, has begun "running operations as far away as Virginia and Mississippi, and has raised eyebrows with the expansion of a virtual foreign intelligence arm present in more than a dozen countries." In addition, NYPD "has tapped the private sector for help, and created an analytical unit that rivals the finest teams at the FBI and CIA." Among their products is a recent report titled Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat. The report has received critical acclaim not only for its insight and actionability, but also the absense of political correctness that hamstrings so many other efforts. While some people might be worried about this new activity on the part of the NYPD, I would contend this is simply one of the strenghts of the federal system: if one part of the government fails to do its duty, others are able and willing to step into the gap.

Internal State Department Memo Praises Contractors

2007-11-20T10:38:00.000-08:00

A few days ago The Spy Who Billed Me published an internal State Department memo which enumerated five cases of "superior/heroic contractor performance" in the war on terror. Dr. R. J. Hillhouse explains, "The first four instances involve contractors from Blackwater and the last one is most likely Triple Canopy." She removed the last names, but has otherwise included all original text. I reproduce it below in its entirety, for your consideration:

Five Examples of Superior/Heroic Contractor Performance

Protectee Evacuation: On 23 Jan 07, Raven 7 was on venue at the Municipalities and Public Works Annex (MMPW) building. At approximately 1113 hours they reported receipt of heavy small arms fire. DOS [Department of State] Air Assets were contacted by RSO TOC [Tactical Operations Center] and requested to provide aerial support. At 1118, the RSO Air Assets arrived in the vicinity of MMPW, and one round of SAF [small arms fire] struck an RSO Air Asset door gunner in the cheek. At 1120, RSO Air Assets took their door gunner to the 28th CSH [combat support hospital]. This COM PSD [personal security detachment] member was pronounced KIA [killed in action]. During this engagement, the COM Tactical Support Teams (TST) 22, 23, 24 and 26 responded to the MMPW building to support the engaged COM PSD teams, and received heavy SAF while in route and on location. Army attack aviation and Stryker units also responded to the MMPW building during this period. The Designated Marksman from Raven 7 on the roof of the MMPW venue remained engaged with a heavy volume of SAF.

At 1150, the RSO Air Assets returned to the scene and again received SAF. This caused one RSO Air Asset to land at Ministry of Health. The other RSO Air Asset (Hughes 530) crashed at MB 4318 8958, approximately 700 meters southeast of the Municipalities and Public Works Annex due to heavy SAF. This location was not confirmed until 1315. The search for the downed RSO Air Asset began immediately. During this search, U.S. Army, COM PSD, and RSO Air Assets were continuously engaged with heavy SAF. Additional RSO Air Assets were requested and responded to the vicinity of the last known location of the downed RSO Air Asset.

At 1315, the Army Stryker unit secured the crash site, and was engaged with a heavy volume of SAF. COM TST [tactical support team] linked up with the Stryker unit at 1323. All four COM PSD in the RSO Air Asset were declared KIA. U.S. Army, COM PSD, and COM TST remained continuously engaged by an undetermined number of insurgents during the evacuation of the 4 KIA remains. At 1541, all COM PSD elements were secure in the International Zone.

There were 5 RSO Air Asset members KIA during this engagement. There were no COM direct hires injured during this engagement. There were no other casualties, or injuries to COM personnel. There are numerous impacts of SAF on COM vehicles, as well as an undetermined amount of damage to equipment.

Explosive Discovery/Mission Aborted: November 2, 2006 - Team 13, advancing for Team 11, arrived at the venue. DDM [designated defensive marksman] was in a position on the roof of the venue and observed a local national placing an object on the ground adjacent to the entrance of the venue. The object had protruding wires. Team 13 with embedded RSO agent (K.) advised Team 11 to abort the mission and return to base. DDM's on the roof observed a second man they surmised was the trigger man for the command detonation of this IED. Blackwater air was contacted and extracted the DDM’S from the roof of the venue (B22) leaving aerial gunners in their place. Air took Team 13 shooters to LZ [landing zone] Washington (B5) and dropped them, returning to pick up their aerial gunners and provide convoy coverage for Team 13 as they returned to B6. Team 13 returned safely to base at 1118 with no further incidents. No shots were fired by our team, and no COM personnel were harmed.

Rescue Operation: October 22, 2006 - Today at about 1630 hours, Blackwater Aviation “Little Birds” BW 33(Chalk #1) and BW 34(Chalk #2) were returning from a mission when BW 34 observed a US Army motorcade that was attacked by an insurgent placed explosive formed charge (EFP) in the vicinity of G3.
The aircrews observed that the vehicles struck by the EFP contained numerous US casualties. BW 33 with Door Gunners Mark Y. (Medic) and John S. made the decision to land at the attack site, assess the wounded and provide MEDEVAC capabilities. Mark exited the aircraft upon landing at the site with John providing security. Mark quickly went to work assessing the wounded and beginning triage. He made a rapid decision to immediately transport two of the more seriously wounded via BW 33 to the Combat Surgical Hospital (CSH) in the International Zone. As the wounded were loaded, Mark would remain behind to continue treating the remaining casualties, while John accompanied the wounded and continued in-flight care.

During this time, BW 34 with Door Gunners Emmett R. and Steve C., provided overhead protective cover for BW 33 expecting a secondary attack during the rescue efforts. BW 34 also requested the medium lift helicopters (412) BW 126 and BW 608 respond to the scene and assist with the MEDEVAC due to the potential number of causalities involved. BW 34 would remain on scene and secure the site and protect the soldiers on the ground while BW 33 flew to the CSH with the first load of wounded soldiers.
BW 126 carrying Door Gunners Saleem A. and Andrew P., and BW 608 with Door Gunners Luigge R. and Gregg K. arrived on scene. The gunners set up a security perimeter and began loading wounded soldiers for transport. Luigge (Medic) immediately assisted Mark Y. with medical duties and evacuated the remaining wounded to the CSH.

Throughout this incident each individual performed his duties flawlessly, with the utmost concern for the wounded and the safety of all those involved. Their calm demeanor and actions prevented unnecessary causalities during the rescue efforts and saved the lives of five US soldiers.

Rescue Operation: On 8 September, 2006 at approximately 1345 hrs, Air Force Major Nori L. drove out of the International Zone (IZ) inadvertently past Check Point 12 (CP12) into the Red Zone. MAJ L. then became lost. She realized her error and tried to backtrack into the IZ. During this maneuver she was fired upon by unknown persons with small arms fire (SAF). The SAF then broke out the driver’s side window of her soft-skinned Ford Explorer. She escaped the attack and drove to an Iraqi Checkpoint where the Iraqi Police surrounded her and protected her. She called a friend in the IZ who then called the RSO TOC and gave us her number. The RSO TOC then called MAJ L. and tried to determine her location. The Watch Officer sent Blackwater Air and the TST team to search for her while she was on the phone with the RSO TOC. After an intensive search MAJ L’s Explorer was located southwest of the IZ on Route Jackson. Blackwater air evacuated her to the Combat Army Support Hospital (CASH). Her injuries appeared to be minor at that time. The Army sent out a unit to recover her Explorer.

Explosive Found: On 23 April 2006, at 1100hrs, my explosive detection K-9, Peggy, and I were assisting Hammer 4 on a mission in support of the US Embassy to Panjshier Valley PRT [provisional reconstruction team]. During this mission we were providing security for Under Secretary of State Fore. During this mission K-9 Peggy was used to search the parking lot adjacent to the PRT and the storage facility prior to the Under Secretary’s arrival. Canine Peggy showed a noticeable difference in behavior and pulled upwind towards a row of old Russian V-twin motors. Peggy started to scan the area and moved towards the center of the motors and placed her nose on a green in color object which she sourced and recognized as explosive odor. K-9 Peggy began to alert as I recognized the object to be a live RPG [rocket-propelled grenade] round. I verbally praised the canine and moved away from the area. I immediately notified our OPS, Rob C. and the TC for Hammer 4, Robert H. They both confirmed the object to be a RPG 5 with the pin removed and already fired (rendering it live ordnance). The shift leader was notified and the area was determined to be unsafe. The mission continued but the Under Secretary was kept at a safe distance from the UXO [unexploded ordinance].

FBI Mum on Blackwater

2007-11-17T05:37:00.000-08:00

This blog, because of its interest in the question of private security contractors, has run a number of posts relating to Blackwater and the 16 September shooting at Nisoor Square, Baghdad. Heretofore we have written relatively little on the FBI's investigation, precisely because the mainstream media seemed to have the story sufficiently well-covered. But, at the request of an anonymous commenter, I decided to take a deeper look. And what I found was surprising.

Because so many news stories get recycled and spun so many times, I decided to go to the horse's mouth: the archive of FBI press releases. There have been, in total, three releases relating to Blackwater. None of them deal with the FBI's findings, since the investigation is not yet complete. The brevity of these press releases allows me to reproduce all of them here.

For Immediate Release
October 2, 2007

Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office
(202) 324-3691

FBI Investigating Alleged Blackwater Shooting in Iraq

At the request of the Department of State, the FBI is sending a team to Iraq to assist in the ongoing investigation into the September 16, 2007, shooting incident allegedly involving Blackwater employees. The team will provide investigative assistance to the State Department investigators leading the investigation. For any additional information, we refer you to the State Department.

For Immediate Release
October 3, 2007

Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office
(202) 324-3691

Security for FBI Personnel Investigating Blackwater

FBI personnel deployed to Iraq have been provided security by Blackwater USA during travels outside the Green Zone under the existing State Department contract. However, to avoid even the appearance of any conflict, the FBI team deployed from Washington to assist the State Department in the investigation of the events of September 16th will have any additional security needs provided by U.S. Government personnel.

John Miller
Assistant Director, Office of Public Affairs
Federal Bureau of Investigation

For Immediate Release
October 10, 2007

Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office
(202) 324-3691

FBI Conducting Independent Investigation Into Alleged Blackwater Shooting in Iraq

At the request of the Department of State, the FBI has sent a team to Iraq to conduct an independent investigation into the September 16, 2007, shooting incident allegedly involving Blackwater employees. For any additional information, we refer you to the Department of Justice.

Now why would the FBI be so quiet about its investigation of Blackwater? A few days ago, CNN brought us the answer: the FBI's not done. CNN's website explains:

"To the best of our knowledge, the key people in this incident have yet to even speak with investigators," said Blackwater Worldwide spokeswoman Anne Tyrrell. She said it was her understanding that none of the five "key" Blackwater employees involved in the incident have been interviewed by the FBI.

In addition, a senior U.S. official who asked not to be identified told CNN that "most, if not all, of the shooters" in the September 16 killings "have not been interviewed."

An FBI representative refused to comment on Tyrrell's statement.

So when I see a headline like the one the New York Times ran a few days ago ("FBI Says Guards Killed 14 Iraqis Without Cause"), I am a little confused. The FBI has not said anything. Well, the New York Times article can only cite "civilian and military officials briefed on the case," and "government officials," whomever they may be. But if you did not read carefully, you would get the impression this is a closed case. In fact, the only admission the NYT gives that the FBI is still at work is to cite Ms. Tyrrell, the Blackwater spokeswoman, as saying "she would have no comment until the FBI released its findings."

I, for one, look forward to reading them.

Blackwater guard gives account of shootout in Iraq

2007-11-15T06:11:00.000-08:00

This just in from the Agence France-Presse:

A guard from the US security firm Blackwater says his motorcade came under fire and that he feared for his life in a deadly shootout in Iraq.

Contradicting reports that the Blackwater motorcade in Baghdad did not come under attack in the September 16 incident which left 17 Iraqi civilians dead, the guard alleged he opened fire on a car that drove towards his team and failed to heed warnings to stop.

He said that then, after coming under fire, he shot at a shack behind the approaching car, at a man with an AK-47 rifle pointed at the motorcade, at a bus which was the source of gunfire, and at two other cars deemed as threats.

"As our motorcade pulled into the intersection, I noticed a white four-door sedan driving directly at our motorcade from the west bound lane," he said in his statement.

"I and others were yelling and using hand signals for the car to stop and the driver looked directly at me and kept moving toward our motorcade. Fearing for my life and the lives of my teammates, I engaged the driver and stopped the threat," he said....

Identified only by the first name "Paul," the Blackwater guard recounted the shooting in a sworn statement to State Department investigators three days after the incident, which ABC posted on its website. His account differs dramatically from that of the FBI, which the New York Times reported found in its investigation that 14 of the 17 deaths were unjustified, the New York Times said....

"Paul" insisted the group was shot at after he first fired at the oncoming car. "At the same moment, I started receiving small arms fire from the shack approximately fifty meters behind the car. I then engaged the individuals where the muzzle flashes came from."

When a person in uniform started pushing the car toward the motorcade, the guard said he shouted and shot at the vehicle until it stopped. He then heard on his radio that the motorcade's command vehicle was down, "and that we were still taking fire," he said.

As the command vehicle was towed, he said he saw a man with his AK-47 "oriented" at the rear gunner in a nearby vehicle in the motorcade. "Fearing for the gunner's life, I engaged the individual and stopped the threat."

With gunfire allegedly coming from a red bus stopped at the intersection, he said he opened fire on the shooters. Then when he was told on his radio that gunfire was coming from another car, he fired at the "suspect vehicle" as he again was "fearing for my life."

Later, a red car was backing up towards the motorcade, and the guard -- fearing it was a possible car bombing attack -- again opened fire, he said. "As we were going over the curb, I noticed several civilians and I was motioning, and screaming that they get down and find cover," he said....

The guard said during his time in Iraq he had made "numerous split-second shoot-don't shoot decisions." He said he had passed qualification courses required by the State Department to carry automatic weapons. According to the statement, the man served in the US army in Bosnia between 1992 and 2002 and was deployed to Iraq in 2004. He later left the military and began working for Blackwater in 2006.

Contractors Help Army "Anthropologize"

2007-11-13T11:11:00.000-08:00

Late last year the US Army launched its Human Terrain System to help it understand the cultural aspects of the areas where it is conducting counterinsurgency operations. The New York Times has carried the story, and last year the US Army Professional Writing Collection had a feature as well. Thanks to new Human Terrain Teams, US combat forces now know more than ever about the people they work with, and that is in turn paying big dividends.

Col. Martin Schweitzer, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division unit working with the anthropologists [in the Shabak Valley of Afghanistan], said that the unit’s combat operations had been reduced by 60 percent since the scientists arrived in February, and that the soldiers were now able to focus more on improving security, health care and education for the population.

Montgomery McFate, the program’s senior social science adviser and an author of the new counterinsurgency manual, dismissed criticism of scholars working with the military. “I’m frequently accused of militarizing anthropology,” she said. “But we’re really anthropologizing the military.”

Russia Accused of Military Build-Up in Georgia

2007-11-13T08:54:00.000-08:00

The FT reports that David Bakradze, Georgian minister for conflict resolution, announced on Monday that Russia had deployed five T-72 main battle tanks (pictured above, on parade in Moscow), plus rocket launchers, armoured personnel carriers and an additional 200 soldiers, into Abkhazia, a separatist region Russia has been supporting with "peacekeepers" since the early 1990s.

Nino Burjanadze, speaker of the Georgian parliament, confirmed a “major movement of Russian military equipment in Abkhazia [while] manpower is moving from Russia too.”

For what it is worth, Russia immediately denied moving men or equipment, dismissing the allegations as “plain lies.”

Blackwater Sniper Footage

2007-11-08T07:34:00.000-08:00

With all the talk of Blackwater snipers these days, I figured I'd post some footage. No, this is not the latest stuff, but it gives a good feel for who these men are and how they act. This clip comes from 2005, with commentary below.

(Wait for the helicopter intro to pass; the sniper section is right behind it.)

The 5-man Blackwater crew that was assinged to CPA [Coalition Provisional Authority] Najaf were coming under heavy small arms and mortar fire, the city was being taken over by insurgents. The police stations and hospitals were taken over as well, after a day of fighting off hundreds of insurgents the city had been completely overrun, with the CPA in the heart of the city and no way out.

The Team called up to Baghdad and reported the situation, they said they needed immediate extract which Gen Sanchez also denied due to the fact the city had been overrun and there were no US troops there, only contractors.

Well, Ambassador Bremer was pissed at Sanchez and I remember being on office watch during the massive arguments! Ambassador Bremer and our Baghdad Team Leader got together and Bremer said ''I don't want another Bridge hanging! Get those boys out of there by any means nessassary!'' so 12 of us -- 6 pilots and 6 gunners loaded as much as we could in 3 MD530 little birds and headed 70 miles south. we flew in the first day and blind (no comms, and no intel on the heat) to try a resupply, land find out was was going on and then head back, rearm and get ready to go again. Well that night all hell broke lose and we flew back in. Over 1000 insurgents (reported by the F18 pilots) had taken the city and now wanted the CPA after a day of intense fighting by 11 BW [Blackwater] guys, airstrikes, a handfull of Marines and 1 sniper we were able to hold them off. After it died down and gunships and SF [Special Forces] guys finally started to roll in the battle was soon over and the CPA was saved.

That's pretty much it in a nut shell...

Blackwater Aids California - At No Cost

2007-11-08T06:31:00.001-08:00

I believe Standish was the first to carry the story of Blackwater's emergency housing effort in southern California. But now the AP has got in on the act and posted a video here.

The basic story is simple: when the State of California would not hire Blackwater to fight the fires, the contractor decided to provide aid free of charge. As the AP explains, the new emergency food and housing comes at no cost, but will be inspected by state and local officials, to ensure safety. (So much for Blackwater being "unaccountable.") Just further proof that Blackwater really does believe in their humanitarian mission.

Christian Science Monitor Breaks Blackwater Contract Story

2007-11-07T09:19:00.001-08:00

Unbeknownst to this blog, the Christian Science Monitor carried the story of Blackwater's State Department contract the same day Statecraft & Security raised the same issue. This is good news for those interested in the truth about how private security contractors behave in Iraq, and why.

The CSM spells out the issue very clearly:

The issue isn't an overly aggressive contractor. It's the State Department's zero tolerance for casualties of its employees in Iraq. Such an approach makes tragedies such as the September episode more common – and it marginalizes the lives of innocent Iraqis who just might be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Placing so many diplomats and civil servants on nation-building assignments in the middle of a civil war has a high price – perhaps too high.... The US government appears to tolerate a certain number of casualties from the all-volunteer military. But civilian employees are a different story.

It's nice to finally see a large, mainstream media outlet placing blame where it's due: with the State Department, it's lawyers and its flawed contract.

The Putin Generation

2007-11-06T09:20:00.000-08:00

Karol Józef Wojtyła was elected pope five years before I was born, and took the name John Paul II. I was twenty-one years old when he died. His papacy was the first I ever knew and had a formative impact on my life. Thousands of Catholics who grew up under the Polish pontiff fondly call themselves the John Paul II Generation.

A frightening parallel exists in Russia today. The first generation of post-Soviet youth are coming of age, and they are calling themselves the Putin Generation. The Nashi movement is one of several pro-Kremlin youth groups that foster Putin's cult of personality. The New York Times ran a story this summer about the group, but I think the video images are most stunning, and so I include several for your viewing pleasure, or horror, as the case may be.

The Putin Generation (Part I of II, by the NYT)

The Putin Generation (Part II of II)

Наша армия, a Nashi military recruitment video

(This video is in Russian, but the images and message are clear enough for anyone to see.)

For a scholarly consideration of the origins of Nashi, see Douglas Robert Buchacek's thesis, NASHA Pravda, NASHE Delo: The Mobilization of the Nashi Generation in Contemporary Russia.

Some Monitors Barred from Russian Elections

2007-11-04T15:40:00.000-08:00

In a trend remarkably similar to its reduction of NGOs in October of last year, Russia has decided to further reduce the number of foreign monitors for its upcoming parliamentary elections in December. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitors elections in many post-Soviet countries, was lately informed by Russian authorities of the change. While OSCE previously was invited to send 400 monitors to elections in 2003, they may now only send 70. This is quite the decrease in a country and a region where elections have been marred by corruption.

Despite electoral predictions that United Russia, Putin’s cult-of-personality-political-party, will win more seats to complement their majority already, the monitoring is essential to show emerging political trends in the country. The attempt of the opposition to gain seats is important to demonstrate that Russia’s citizens still wish to have a voice in their ever-growing-authoritative-quasi-democracy. Russians must be vigilant for future trends the Kremlin will show. This is already evident in reports that Putin might seek to hold some official position after his required departure from the Presidency, similar to Lukashenko of neighboring Belarus, who altered its Constitution to win a third term.

Gen. Chennault and the Flying Tigers: Private Military Contractors

2007-11-02T13:29:00.000-07:00

One of the finest chapters of American history did not even occur in the United States and involved a gang of private military contractors: the American Volunteer Group, better known as the Flying Tigers.

In early 1941 the US was not yet officially at war, but a number of Americans - including President Roosevelt - saw the need to aid the Nationalist Chinese against Japanese aggression. And so airplanes were purchased, with 82 pilots and 359 ground crewmembers recruited for the effort from among former US servicemen. The group was lead by Claire Chennault, a retired US Army Air Corps captain who had become a private military advisor to Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek.

These Americans were technically "mercinaries" in that they were privately hired by the Chinese government. But they were some of the most professional and skilled men in the world: at the defense of Rangoon the Flying Tigers flew alongside the men of the RAF, and by even the lowest figures, these American contractors outflew and outfought their British allies.

The AVG was officially credited with 297 enemy aircraft destroyed, including 229 in the air. Thirty-three AVG pilots and three ground crew received the Chinese Order of the Cloud Banner, many AVG pilots received the Chinese Air Force Medal and each AVG ace and double ace was awarded the Chinese Five Star or Ten Star Wing Medal. However, success did not come without a price: fourteen pilots were killed in action, captured, or disappeared on combat missions; two died of wounds sustained in bombing raids; and six were killed in accidents.

After World War II, ten ex-Flying Tigers pilots formed a cargo airline named Flying Tiger Line, after the AVG. Flying Tiger Line operated for forty years, and was the largest cargo airline in the world for some time. It was eventually purchased by Federal Express.

Who drives against traffic in a traffic circle?

2007-11-02T13:14:00.000-07:00

While trawling the blogosphere I recently came across someone rhetorically asking Who drives against traffic in a traffic circle?, with regards to the recent Blackwater firefight at Nisoor Square, Baghdad.

A fair question. The State Department contract with Blackwater, which is about 1,000 pages long and extensively detailed, stipulate that State Department convoys travel quickly and drive aggressively. Furthermore, no State Department official ever travels with less than three vehicles and they're always the biggest stuff they can find, with those obnoxious "Warning: Stay Back" signs and all of that.

This is in contrast to the CIA, which drives around Baghdad and other parts of Iraq, with contract security, all the time, but doesn't run into trouble. Why? Because they're riding in unmarked beat-up pickups and following traffic patterns. The difference, surprisingly, is not the contractors - both employ them - but the agency that hires them and the terms of the contracts.

It's sad to think that the State Department officially has the lead for public diplomacy. Who most heavily opposed the State Department terms under which Blackwater is employed? The Department of Defense (which also employs contractors, but again, under different terms), folks who actually know a thing or two about public diplomacy, even though it's not their primary duty.

The State Department contract also stipulated that diplomatic security guards must wear wrap-around sunglasses (a cultural faux pas in the Arabic world) and prohibited facial hair (another cultural faux pas). Just what were these State Department boys learning at Georgetown?

Blackwater Brings Relief to California Fire Victims

2007-10-29T18:35:00.000-07:00

The media doesn't often mention this, but relief work is a key part of Blackwater's mission, both as a business and as a service-oriented American company. (Yes, they continue to think of themselves as such, in spite of all the mud that's been thrown at them.) Because the company seldom issued press releases until recently, it hasn't told the public of its humanitarian work around the world and here at home.

The company's hometown newspaper, the Virginian-Pilot, reported this weekend that Blackwater has started to help deliver food and supplies to victims of the wild fires in southern California.

So far, according to the report, "Blackwater has made three deliveries of food, water, personal hygiene products and generator fuel to 300 area residents, many of whom have been trapped for days without supplies." No doubt the effort will grow in the coming days.

The Boston Tea Party: A Model of Political Warfare (Part III)

2007-10-26T12:51:00.000-07:00

(Click here for Part I)

Even a well-planned operation can backfire; the leaders of the Boston Tea Party were careful to avoid these. If someone within the political warfare campaign is diluting or contradicting the desired message, that person needs to be brought into line or otherwise neutralized before they do serious harm. In the case of the Tea Party, those who tried to save some of the tea for themselves were stripped naked, coated in mud and given a severe bruising.

Likewise, any political warfare should be carefully calibrated to send the desired message while avoiding collateral damage, be it metaphorical or – in the case of the Boston Tea Party – literal. Such unintended consequences can provide the opposition with ammunition. By making sure that nothing aside from the tea and tea chests were damaged, the Bostonians limited the possible negative side effects of their actions.

Poor operational security can also plague an otherwise well-planned campaign. Secrets – be they the identities of certain people, future plans or other matters – must be carefully maintained; leaks can make for terribly unpleasant surprises. One of the participants in the Boston Tea Party explained that afterwards they “quietly retired to our several places of residence, without having any conversation with each other, or taking any measures to discover who were our associates.”

Any time an action is nominally undertaken by a third party, the political warrior must be careful to make the denial of his involvement sufficiently plausible. While covering up proof of that involvement – the negative approach – is helpful, actively creating alibis – the positive approach – is likely to be even more successful. Samuel Adams and those involved in addressing the pre-Tea Party meeting made a point of remaining conspicuously behind in the Old South Meeting House. It was not a perfect alibi, but in the case of legal or other such action against them, it could have formed the first line of defense. Which may explain part of the reason that the governor never bothered to bring such charges.

Samuel Adams prepared an account of events the day after the Tea Party and Paul Revere (pictured above) immediately rode south with the news. A great speech or daring maneuver that gets no press coverage is of very limited value to the political warrior. Rather than simply hoping the media will pick up a story, or even encouraging it to do so, the story should be actively cultivated and disseminated. Controlling the message in this way ensures that the proper conclusions will be drawn.

The Boston Tea Party: A Model of Political Warfare (Part II)

2007-10-25T13:34:00.000-07:00

(Click here for Part I)

A good political warfare campaign is not carried out in isolation, but in the context of a broader effort. An obvious element of such an effort is the utilization of political leverage in the traditional ways: passing resolutions, winning elections, etc. Even if victories in this area are not immediately attainable or are of little obvious effect, used in conjunction with other tools, political leveraging can highlight an issue and put pressure on certain parties. In the case of the Tea Party, the Boston Town Meeting and other political fora were utilized to demand the tea consignees' resignations.

This would be an example of propaganda of the deed. Other forms of propaganda are just as essential: a media blitz before the centerpiece of a campaign can focus attention and positively incline the public to receive the desired message. Sam Adams and his committee of correspondence were masters of cranking out letter, articles and speeches.

Finally, potential problems should be identified and neutralized before a major effort is undertaken. When Governor Hutchison of Massachusetts ordered the colonel of the cadet corps, a certain John Hancock, to prepare for action, Hancock refused. The British still had soldiers at their command, of course, but Hancock's action limited Hutchison's options and reduced the danger to the patriot cause.

Which leads us to one of the great lessons of political warfare: create uncomfortable dilemmas for the enemy. Like a good move in chess, this bit of political warfare leaves the opposition with options all of which play into the political warrior’s hands. The day before the tea was scheduled to be landed in Boston, the Dartmouth’s owner rode through the rain and cold to obtain permission from the governor not to land; Hutchison could either concede or look like a jerk. (In the event, he chose the latter, which did nothing to help his plunging popularity with the people of Boston.) The very Tea Party itself created a similar dilemma: the British could escalate or back down, but either way, they played into the patriots’ hands.

(Click here for Part III)

What Will They Come Up With Next?

2007-10-25T12:37:00.000-07:00

If the public discussion of Blackwater, the private security contractor, has not become absurd enough, the Portland Independent Media Center and other news outlets are circulating the story that Blackwater started the brush fires currently raging in California. Meanwhile, Richmond Indy Media contends that Blackwater blew the levees in New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina came through. Apparently its all part of a secret Nazi agenda.

In the face of accusations that irrational, what can you possibly say?

How Quickly We Forget...

2007-10-24T10:53:00.000-07:00

The Washington Times reported today that when Blackwater asked the State Department for on-board cameras for its vehicles in Iraq, State Department lawyers refused.

Blackwater says it asked for the cameras on 17 May, 2005, "in response to a false accusation against one of our teams in Baghdad." A State Department Diplomatic Security agent in Baghdad, David Brackins, agreed to the request, but the next day, State Department official Paul Nassen called Blackwater and told the company to "stand down" because lawyers had "legal issues" and would not allow the company to incorporate the cameras.

Had it been me I might have told the lawyers where to put their "legal issues," but Blackwater, bound by its 1,000-page contract to comply with all State Department specifications, did as it was told. The lessons to be drawn from this debacle are many:

(1) Congress has no will or ability to consider facts more than a month or two old. Especially those that are uncomfortable for certain crusading congressmen.

(2) The State Department does not want to give its own contractors the benefit of a video record for their own defense and failed to anticipate the (fairly obvious) desire of the Congress and the media to have better documentation of what goes on in Iraq.

(3) Following State Department directives, per your contract, is perhaps more dangerous than following the contract. Only a man as honorable as Erik Prince would stick by his word in a situation like that. Somehow, I doubt Congressman Henry Waxman would...

The Boston Tea Party: A Model of Political Warfare (Part I)

2007-10-24T10:29:00.000-07:00

Any political warfare campaign – be it an attempt to remove a member of the local school board or an effort to foment rebellion in a foreign country – requires a variety of people, all of which the Boston Tea Party had, in its own way. Leaders from the political classes provide access to and familiarity with the traditional levers of political power; even if these cannot be fully utilized, political leadership may at least be able to neutralize them. In the case of the Tea Party, this leadership came from the North End Caucus, a sort of local political club.

Most acts of political warfare require that someone actually do something, be it knocking on doors and promoting a candidate or throwing tea off a ship; these sorts of things can require large numbers of people, often people with skills or experiences differing from those of the political leadership. Tying together the Boston longshoremen and the North End Caucus were middle class Bostonians who had social and familial ties to the world of the wharf. These men were networkers – people with a variety of connections who are able to speak to different audiences – and every political warfare campaign needs them to hold together various elements.

Whatever strata of society they come from or whatever role they play in the campaign, those with something to lose are obvious participants; they have a real stake in the outcome. For the Boston Tea Party it was the "smuggling fraternity" that had such stake and they proved willing cooperators with Samuel Adams (pictured above) and the other patriot leaders.

Finally, allies outside the immediate area of concern can be very helpful, providing moral or material support in times of difficulty; in addition, gathering allies before the opposition does prevents him from gaining any advantage by widening the conflict. Boston's Committee of Correspondence was instrumental in keeping the merchants of Philadelphia and New York in touch with and supportive of the patriot cause.

(Click here for Part II)

Stephen Colbert: Political Warrior?

2007-10-23T06:41:00.000-07:00

The more I watch this man's presidential campaign, the more I'm intrigued. Many people would be tempted to dismiss Stephen Colbert, host of The Colbert Report, as a late-night comedian pulling a publicity stunt. And maybe he is. But is a presidential campaign really that different from a publicity stunt?

He makes innovative use of online and television media; he ridicules his rivals and the system in which he's running, saying the things the rest of us have long been thinking; and he's fun to watch! While the campaign as a whole can probably not be taken seriously, individual lessons in reaching and mobilizing a base abound. Political warriors of the world: take note.

NYT Hunts for Contractors

2007-10-20T22:06:00.000-07:00

Already one of the leading newspapers critical of Blackwater, the New York Times has extended its front to other contractors in Iraq. An incident last Thursday near Kirkuk that implicated security guards for British company Erinys International highlighted this.

The last statement in an interview with one of the three Iraqis injured by Erinys, emphasized (in a lone paragraph) that the guards involved are “savages and criminals and killers.” Paraphrasing the interview, the NYT reported that the “guards then drove away without offering medical help…”

With such biased language against security contractors, one cannot help but notice the empathy card that the NYT is trying to put on the Iraqis involved. This goes against the fact that their car approached “at a high rate of speed” and failed to respond to warnings from contractors, thus prompting engagement.

As a side note, the other half of the (rather large) Friday article continues not on contractors, but on Kurdish responses to Turkey and Iraqi reservations about executing former officials of Saddam’s government. At first glance, the article’s length implies a rather extensive expose on security contractors, but instead detours to other matters.

Those Pesky Little Details...

2007-10-19T04:46:00.000-07:00

Andy Smith, a former Blackwater employee now with the State Department, pointed out an interesting little detail that was picked up in the Star-Gazette. One picture of the aftermath of the 16 September shooting in Nisoor Square in Iraq, showed piles of shell casings being swept up. Just further proof that Blackwater guards are trigger happy, right? Actually, no. As Smith explains, those were AK-47 rounds. Blackwater doesn't use AKs.

So what does this picture really tell us? First, the Blackwater convoy came under very heavy fire. Second, someone felt the need to sweep up the evidence. Before the Iraqi government conducted its investigation? Wouldn't surprise me. Explains why several reports found only American ammunition was found laying around the scene when the investigators showed up.

Anti-Blackwater Attorneys Slammed

2007-10-17T19:46:00.000-07:00

"A legal group with a four-decade record of aiding and abetting terrorists, spies and cop-killers is suing" Blackwater for the September 16 Nisoor Square tragedy in Baghdad, according to an op-ed in the New York Post. "Joining it is an Egyptian attorney who has been representing what the US Treasury Department calls a fund-raising operation for al Qaeda."

That's some pretty shady stuff...

The column, by Center for Security Policy Vice President Michael Waller, takes a look at the checkered past of the Center for Constitutional Rights and its president, Michael Ratner, to show their decades-long efforts on behalf of terrorists, murderers of FBI agents and police officers, and Communist spies.

The column also links pro-terrorist attorney Ratner to Jeremy Scahill, author of an inflammatory if partially accurate book about Blackwater, showing how the lawyer and writer worked together to try to keep Serbian war criminal Slobodan Milosevic in power. For folks who claim to be interested in human rights, that's an odd line to take...

Prince Discusses Blackwater Personnel

2007-10-15T23:41:00.000-07:00

Tonight Erik Prince explained to Charlie Rose some of the process that goes into recruiting and training Blackwater personnel. Contrary to popular mythology, not just any Joe off the street makes the cut. In fact, the Blackwater contract with the State Department, called the Worldwide Personal Protective Services Contract (WPPS), details in nearly a thousand pages of minute detail how Blackwater is to conduct itself, including how it recruits and trains. As Prince explains,

[This document covers in] very exhaustive detail of the kind of person we have to hire, the resume requirements, the military experience or law enforcement, the psychological checks, the criminal background checks, medical/dental screening, additional training, 160 plus hours in driving, firearms, use of force, cultural sensitivity, full range of training. We have to do an exhaustive training program for each of those persons, so we do the recruiting, vetting, equipping, training, deploying, all back to a State Department standard. It's observed by the State Department. They send their people to observe our training, go through the resumes of the instructors, and we deploy that person, and then they come under the operational control of the US government, in this case, of the State Department.

Why don't you ever hear the media talking about the WPPS? Or would researching their material be too much trouble...?

Making the Move to the Private Sector

2007-10-15T10:46:00.000-07:00

A common criticism of private military contractors is that their employees - typically former Marines, SEALs, Rangers or other special forces - receive extensive training from the government, only to then move to the private sector where they can make more money. But a recent Washington Post article explains that Blackwater trains not only trains US law enforcement authorities, but also Army and Navy personnel. So it turns out that the folks moving to the private sector received their training... in the private sector. Go figure.

Perhaps more to the point, the critics of private security contractors fail to realize the nature of these men. In the special operations community, men usually stay operational for a small duration after which the command assigns them to staff work. Instead of languishing at a desk, many soldiers and sailors retire from the military not just to make more money, but also to return to the battlefield: the place they've been trained to be, the place were they belong.

Prince Appears on 60 Minutes

2007-10-14T17:13:00.000-07:00

Erik Prince, founder and CEO of the Blackwater private security contractor, talked with 60 Minutes' Lara Logan. His reception was hardly a welcome one, with Logan claiming that “a Blackwater convoy opened fire without provocation,” after having just described a “massive car bomb” attack.

In spite of this, Logan had to admit that the Iraqi government's criticism of Blackwater may not be well founded. She asked:

When you hear the Iraqi government complete an investigation in record time, I think–a matter of days – and pronounce you 100% guilty, what’s your reaction to that?

Prince answered:

I take it all with a grain of salt. Three of our fully-armored State Department trucks had bullet pockmarkets in them and one of them was even disabled from the enemy small-arms fire.

Regarding the Department of Justice' investigation of his company, Prince explained:

I’m glad the FBI’s investigating; I’m glad they can be a neutral party and if there’s further investigation or prosecution even needed – if someone really did wrong and meant badly – I’m all supportive because… we want justice done. We want more oversight. We want more accountability.

Prince said one of the things he's most proud of is the way Blackwater has gone beyond its contracts to help others, as in the case of the rescue of the Polish ambassador earlier this month, a feat of considerable technical skill.

The Truth About Order 17

2007-10-14T11:52:00.000-07:00

The Washington Post recently claimed that "when [L. Paul] Bremer left his post, he signed an order exempting U.S. contractors such as Blackwater from being prosecuted under Iraqi law." This is a common misconception and it's sad to see a major publication like the Washington Post getting this wrong.

The order in question is Order 17, which stipulates that "Contractors shall be immune from Iraqi legal process with respect to acts performed by them pursuant to the terms and conditions of a Contract or any sub-contract thereto." In other words, contractors getting drunk and causing trouble in their spare time get no immunity. This is quite different from national military forces, which are unequivocally "immune from Iraqi legal process." In this regard, private security contractors are actually more accountable than the US military.

Playing the Numbers Game

2007-10-14T11:44:00.000-07:00

Lots of folks like to point out that there are as many contractors in Iraq as their are US soldiers. However, a recent Washington Post article points out that this is misleading. Though "the estimated 160,000 contractors of all stripes working in Iraq equal the number of war fighters," of those, "security contractors number about 48,000," or less than one third of the total number of contractors. This is not a secret army; most of these guys are truck drivers, cooks, translators and other support personnel aiding the US military. But you won't hear critics of the war or the Bush administration clarifying these sorts of details...

Is Clinton Responsible for Blackwater?

2007-10-13T05:58:00.000-07:00

This morning the Washington Post, not normally one of my favorite newspapers, ran an interesting article on Blackwater and its founder, Erik Prince. The article notes that:

Blackwater's extraordinary rise would not have been possible without a swirl of historic forces, including sharp cuts in military and security staffing in the 1990s.... Over the past seven years, federal agencies have used changes in contracting rules launched during the Clinton administration to outsource an unprecedented amount of government business, including life-and-death duties once the domain of the military.

So while Bush the Younger usually gets most of the credit for the privitization of US military operations, in fact the opportunity to do so only came about as a result of the massive military cuts made by two Clinton administrations. Or did it?...

A host of public-private partnerships existed during World War II, from intelligence analysis to weapons development to language training for counterintelligence personnel. But America's use of what today would be termed 'contractors' in fact goes back much farther. Captain Myles Standish, of Pilgrim fame, was a hired security contractor, as were many figures in the early days of American settlement. This is not really surprising, since public-private partnerships were common in the Anglo-American tradition at least as far back as Elizabethan England. Sir Francis Walsingham, Sir Francis Drake, Sir John Hawkins, Christopher Marlowe, William Shakespeare and the other men the Elizabeth employed probably worried little about the precise nature of their work with the government. They were serving Queen and country, and that was what mattered.

The Merchant of Death

2007-10-12T16:44:00.000-07:00

While there’s no shortage of books on international terrorism, drug cartels and genocide, the international weapons trade has received less attention. Journalists [Douglas] Farah and [Stephen] Braun center their absorbing exposé of this source of global misery on its most successful practitioner, the Russian dealer Victor Bout (pictured, in the Congo). Throughout the Cold War, they show, the Kremlin supplied arms to oppressive regimes and insurgent groups, keeping close tabs on customers; after the USSR collapsed, the floodgates opened in the 1990s. With weapons factories starved for customers, Soviet-era air transports lying idle and rusting, and dictators, warlords and insurgents throughout the world clamoring for arms, entrepreneurs and organized criminals saw fortunes to be made. The authors paint a depressing picture of an avalanche of war-making material pouring into poor, violence-wracked nations despite well-publicized UN embargoes. America denounces this trade, but turns a blind eye if recipients proclaim they are fighting terrorism, they say. Ruthless people who shun publicity make poor biographical subjects, and Bout is no exception. The authors’ energetic research reveals that rivals dislike him, colleagues admire him, enemies condemn him, and Bout describes himself as a much-maligned but honest businessman. Although an unsatisfactory portrait, the book surrounds it with an engrossing, detailed description of this wildly destructive traffic.

-Publishers Weekley

A fascinating interview with Merchant of Death author Douglas Farah on Al Jazeera's English service. Includes a phone conversation with Richard Chichakli, a close associate of the elusive Mr. Bout.

Washington Post obscures truth on Blackwater

2007-10-08T14:37:00.000-07:00

The front page of today's Express, the free daily put out by the Washington Post, carries an AP story which misleads the reader about the Blackwater private security contractor. The tagline proclaims: "Investigation finds security guards fired first in shootings."

Whose investigation? The Iraqi government's. The same Iraqi government that the Washington Post and its ilk was lambasting not so long ago because it failed to meet the US standards for transparency, accountability and other such Western nicities. But apparently we now trust it to conduct investigations about our own citizens. Never mind those allegations that Blackwater refused to pay the bribe the Iraqi Interior Ministry demanded of it, resulting in having its license pulled. Never mind that the Iraqi government has tried to wiggle its way out of a joint US-Iraqi probe, to avoid a full investigation. Never mind that Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qader Mohammed Jassim admitted to the International Herald Tribune that his investigation was one-sided...

Is the Post really interested in the truth?

Blackwater Stays - With New Rules

2007-10-08T11:17:00.000-07:00

The New York Times reports:

The State Department, seeking to retain its relationship with Blackwater USA while trying to bring the company’s armed guards under tighter control, said Friday that it would now send its own personnel as monitors on all Blackwater security convoys in and around Baghdad.

In addition, the department says it will install video cameras in Blackwater vehicles and will save recordings of all radio transmissions between Blackwater convoys and military and civilian agencies.

What does all this mean? The knee-jerk answer is that Blackwater has been reigned in and punished in some way. This is true so far as it goes, but it misses a key underlying point: the State Department wants Blackwater to stay in Iraq. And why? Because without Blackwater protection, US diplomats would have to pull up stakes and come home. The situation is simply too dangerous to operate without protection. The Department of Defense is too busy fighting insurgents and State Department guards are inadequate for the task.

The most alarming part of this story is that the anti-war camp knows just how important Blackwater is ensuring that US diplomats are able to provide a political dimension to US efforts in Iraq. Without the diplomats, the military component alone cannot win the war. And the anti-war camp knows this. That's why they want Blackwater out. The anti-war camp's not interested in the safety of Iraqi civilians or US government personnel; they just want to see us out now. And they're willing to resort to dirty politics and frivolous lawsuits to do it.

US Captures al-Qaeda Propagandists

2007-10-07T14:38:00.001-07:00

For all the failures that my have occurred in Iraq, US officials have realized the importance of the political dimension of the war. USA Today reported that a half dozen al-Qaeda media centers have recently been captured, with twenty propagandists arrested. The insurgents understand the crucial role of the media in this fight and have used it to strong effect. In 2005, Ayman al-Zawahiri (pictured), Osama bin Laden's deputy, said that most "of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media."

USA Today reports that these "new offensives [are] aimed at al-Qaeda sanctuaries and [have] an emphasis on blunting the terrorist group's extensive propaganda operations." Air Force Col. Donald Bacon explains that "one of our goals is to target these propaganda networks, and we've had more success over the past three months." These seizures have sharply reduced the quantity of videos and other items posted to the internet.

New Magazine Takes a New Look

2007-10-07T10:35:00.000-07:00

A new magazine titled Serviam (Latin for "I will serve") has just been launched, and it takes an interesting new look at the role of private institutions in international stability. The magazine describes its mission thus:

To provide accurate and actionable information about private sector solutions to promote global stability. We address users and consumers of private goods and services in the humanitarian relief, national development, security and military sectors; government and private providers of such goods and services; and government entities involved in decisions that determine or influence trends in this growing industry.

While Blackwater and the International Red Cross might strike some as strange bedfellows, they actually have a surprising amount in common. Not only are both private institutions engaged in the international scene, but security is a prerequisite for humanitarian aid and reconstruction. Without security, aid is all but impossible; without a humanitarian motive, security is pointless.

So keep an eye out for interesting, innovative and enlightening articles from Serviam and its editor, J. Michael Waller.

Blackwater Rescues Polish Diplomat

2007-10-04T10:55:00.000-07:00

This just in from the Associated Press:

A daring ambush of bombs and gunfire left Poland's ambassador [to Iraq] pinned down in a burning vehicle Wednesday before being pulled to safety and airlifted in a rescue mission by the embattled security firm Blackwater USA.

Though Blackwater was not involved in the protection of the Polish convoy, the State Department dispatched the private security contractor for a rescue mission when news of the attack came in.

The AP reports that "American authorities confiscated an AP Television News videotape that contained scenes of the wounded being evacuated. US military spokesman Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl told AP that Iraqi law make it illegal to photograph or videotape the aftermath of bombings or other attacks." However, videos have shown up on YouTube, only to be pulled for various reasons. Statecraft & Security will keep looking until we can find you one.

Art and Culture in the War of Ideas

2007-09-26T11:36:00.000-07:00

Supporters of the Iraqi insurgency have begun producing Hollywood-style movie posters, most based on horror or action movies, satirizing the American military. While the precise origin of the posters is unclear, Britain's Sky News, the only media outlet to cover the matter, reported this summer that the images are proliferating on Islamic extremist websites, which attribute them to the insurgents themselves.

One blogger who picked up the story noted that the insurgents "show a native fluency in American popular culture." This indeed raises a variety of questions about culture, popular or otherwise.

Is culture the type of thing that can be used or abused?

Is art merely techne, the ability to craft something well? In that case, might we call this latest propaganda campaign by these mufsidun "good art"? Or does art necessarily have a moral dimension?

Finally, do cultures have an innate value, or are all equal? As a practical matter, should we be studying the enemy, in order to bring this sort of propaganda to his camp, or is there something inherently wrong with this, if his culture is intrinsically disordered? Is his culture so disordered?

NATO planes intercept Russian bombers

2007-09-08T13:56:00.000-07:00

As if we needed more reason to be worried that Pooty-Poot wants to bring back the glory days of the Cold War, the AP reports

Norwegian and British fighters scrambled... to intercept eight Russian bombers that neared the Nordic country's territory in the latest show of air power by the Kremlin.... The Tu-95 strategic bombers rounded Norway's northern tip over the Barents Sea and flew south over the North Atlantic before turning back, Norwegian defense officials said. The Russian planes... stayed inside international air space during the maneuvers.

Lt. Col. John Inge Oeglaend, of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, explained that two Norwegian F-16s were sent up both times that the Russian aircraft approached Norwegian territory. He said it was the third time since mid-July that Norwegian fighters have scrambled to counter Russian maneuvers. NATO spokesman James Appathurai said Norway and Britain launched quick-reaction interceptor and airborne-warning planes and tankers "as part of routine NATO procedure."

There's good news... and bad news

2007-07-26T06:16:00.000-07:00

The FT recently ran the following headline: "Good news: you are unlikely to be nuked any time soon." This is indeed good news, the sort I like to read over my morning bowl of oatmeal.

As Gideon Rachman points out, nuclear technology, though sixty years old, is still very difficult to master. And the 1999 example of the Kargil War shows that nuclear powers tend to actually be rather restrained with their wares. Good news indeed.

There are, however, several related issues you should be worrying about (not to mention the Chinese threat).

First, Rachman - or at least those he's commenting upon - forget that there are other weapons of mass destruction besides nuclear ones. Chemical and biological weapons are much simpler to build and still terribly dangerous. And Russia has lots of them just sitting around, waiting to be stolen or sold on the black market. Even if the Russian government wants to be a good steward of these weapons and keep them out of the hands of terrorists, the Russian government itself doesn't know where all its weapons are. That's why a new blog on Russian biological and chemical weapons is highlighting the danger of non-state transfers of these things.

Of course there's no reason to assume the Russians have any desire to act responsibly. Just yesterday Vladimir Putin, known to the White House as Pooty-Poot, said Russia must continue to strengthen its military and step up spying on the West. And seeing as how Pooty-Poot tends to get what he wants in Russia, we can look forward to these developments in the coming months and years.

And if you don't yet have sufficient cause for concern, consider that Russia has just launched a submarine expedition to the North Pole on the logic that "The Arctic is ours and we should demonstrate our presence." Nevermind that the area is nowhere close to Russia's internationally recognized territorial waters; they're claiming this now too.

Beware the Dragon...

2007-07-25T06:14:00.000-07:00

The Chinese made the front page of the FT three times today. The largest story looks encouraging: "Chinese-FBI joint crackdown nets $500m in pirated software." It is, however, to two other stories that I would like to draw attention. An article titled "US arrests Mexican over drugs import claim" describes the arrest in Washington, DC, of the Chinese-Mexican businessman Zhenli Ye Gon. Earlier this year Mr. Ye Gon made headlines when $205 million in cash was seized from his Mexico City home, the largest single seizure of drug cash in history.

Authorities have connected Mr. Ye Gon with a huge criminal organisation that manufactured pseudoephedrine, the main ingredient in methamphetamines.

The final story from the front page of today's FT is about the vast numbers of Chinese migrants who are arriving in the Philippines.

According to Teresita Ang-See, an expert on Chinese in the Philippines, there are 80,000-100,000 illegal or over-staying Chinese nationals in the country.... Many are drawn to illicit activities such as smuggling and drugs.

Danilo Almeda, an immigration spokesman, explained that

The Chinese come here as legitimate tourists or investors but try to leave for the US or Canada using forged passports or visas.

What is the point of mentioning these stories? Simply to point out that Chinese migrants are all over the world and some - probably a minority - are involved in some shady business? No, there's more to it than that, if we connect the dots.

Ralph D. Sawyer of the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary has raised a number of important issues in his recent article 'Chinese Strategic Power: Myths, Intent and Projections.'

The capture of a Chinese druglord in the US capital caught my eye, having read earlier this year in Sawyer's article that

The inclusion of drugs, smuggling, psychological warfare - a major thematic topic in recent issues of China Military Science - and various weapons of mass destruction ranging from biological through chemical and even nuclear, all to be combined in new ways, indicates that no method of inflicting casualties, disabling the infrastructure, and sowing disorder is to be excluded or neglected.

Likewise, large numbers of Chinese 'businessmen' or 'tourists' trying to come to the US through the Philippines should be a cause for concern.

In modern practice the PRC relies heavily upon open source information gathered by masses of virtual amateurs the many students and businessmen presently in North America supplemented by professionals who approach predetermined targets. Armies of the inquisitive siphon off the latest ideas and discoveries for exploitation and development in the PRC; front companies and major PRC entities gain access to proprietary information through a variety of means, including paid informants, defectors, and businessmen and others entrapped by female agents, especially in Asia; military specialists are targeted, particularly overseas; military manuals and publications are combed for knowledge and weaknesses; and cyber warfare specialists routinely filch vital data and plans through the pervasive internet.

The presence of Chinese organized crime and large numbers of illegal Chinese nationals, be they in our own backyard or in Asia, is worrisome. The publication of of Unrestricted Warfare, by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, in conjunction with a number of other Chinese documents, has lead Sawyer and others to conclude that,

To the extent that they adopt historical doctrine and model on precedents, what might be termed “Triple S” - lowtech, systematic sabotage and subversion - may be expected to comprise a key element in PRC war plans. Triple S will be equally applicable whether targeting Taiwan or the United States, although with decidedly different intent. Moreover, insofar as the PRC presently lacks the weapons to launch a massive strike directly against North America, it virtually must resort to the traditional, much espoused concept of unorthodox warfare and employ an army of saboteurs to asymmetrically carry the battle to America’s heartland.

Why isn't anyone talking about this?